Short-Term Inflation Will Dramatically Increase Retirement Health Care Costs

The average 55-year-old couple can expect to pay an additional $160,712 for health care in retirement because of inflation, according to HealthView Services’ estimates.

PA-032122-What inflation does to retirement health care costs-148441429At the same time inflation is threatening the earnings on employees’ retirement savings, it is increasing what they can expect to pay for health care costs in retirement, according to a report by HealthView Services.

The research report, “The Long-Term Impact of Short-Term Inflation,” shows that even a short period of high inflation will significantly impact retirement health care costs and budgets. Assuming that health care inflation will continue at a historical average of 1.5 to two times the Consumer Price Index over a period of one to two years, before returning to an average normalized inflation rate of around 5.9%, HealthView Services estimates that for an average 65-year-old couple, lifetime retirement health care costs will grow by an additional $85,917, for a total of $673,587.

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For the average 55-year-old couple, assuming just two years of health care cost inflation at 1.5 times CPI of 7.9%, lifetime retirement health care costs will grow by $160,712, for a total of $1,073,717. For a 45-year-old couple, the numbers are $259,808 and $1,770,276, respectively.

Total lifetime health care outlays include Medicare Part B and D premiums and supplemental insurance, as well as actuarially determined out-of-pocket expenses for hospitalization, doctor visits, tests and prescriptions. HealthView Services notes that while retirees saw a Social Security cost-of-living-adjustment, or COLA, for this year of 5.9%, they also saw Medicare premiums rise by 15%.

“Even when adjusted for higher Social Security COLAs, the portion of retirement budgets required to cover health care will be significantly higher than most expect,” says Ron Mastrogiovanni, founder and CEO of HealthView Services. “A 45-year-old couple will need to invest an additional $27,000 today just to cover the increase in future expenses resulting from higher inflation.”

He adds: “The bottom line for those planning for retirement is that health-related costs will continue to rise across the board, and they will need to save more to address these expenses. For retirees, budgets will continue to be squeezed.”

The research report also reviews how increased use of medical services and other critical factors will drive health care inflation.

HealthView Services says investment strategies and savings targets might need to be adjusted to reflect this new normal. “Ultimately, a long-term strategic approach that focuses on in-retirement distributions to cover health care costs offers a path to ensure these expenses can be addressed,” the report says.

Research from Fidelity Investments finds people often underestimate the potential cost of health care in retirement. Plan sponsors and advisers can offer tools to help employees estimate their future health care costs. Employers with high-deductible health plans can offer a health savings account, or HSA, along with it to help employees save for health care expenses in retirement.

Paul Fronstin, director, health benefits research at the Employee Benefit Research Institute, has suggested that employers can consider offering a retiree medical plan. These plans will typically help pay for cost-sharing rates and benefits not covered by Medicare, including copayments, coinsurance and prescription drugs.

HealthView Services has developed a simple consumer-facing calculator enabling users to calculate the impact of inflation on their potential health care expenses. Individuals can access the calculator and download the research report here.

Advisers Can Assist Participants With Spending Safely in Retirement

With a new retirement withdrawal projection from J.P. Morgan, advisers have a tool to help participants gradually spend down accumulated balances.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has debuted retirement spending tools for plan sponsors and retirement plan advisers to integrate into the firm’s target-date fund series.

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The enhanced tools were launched to provide participants with an annual sample spend-down amount and interactive spending calculator. The tools provide plan sponsors and advisers with additional resources to help participants that are at decumulation and those near retirement, says Andrea Lisher, managing director, head of Americas Client, for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

“Target-date funds are a phenomenal vehicle for retirement savings; that extension forward to retirement spending is the next leg of the journey,” she says.

Dan Oldroyd, portfolio manager and the head of Target Date Strategies at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, adds that the tools were launched based on the firm’s research and surveys. Advisers and plan sponsors want to see retirement income and spending tools in plans.

The launch is a “new set of tools that are oriented much more to the spending side,” Oldroyd explains.

“[Research shows] they’re really focused now on helping people spend those assets in retirement,” he says. “The first save-to-spend target-date funds are going to enhance our target-date funds to offer—when you get to retirement age—sample withdrawal amounts that participants can access.”

Participants can use the tool to budget and plan for how much of their savings to spend. 

“A participant each year will get a sample withdrawal amount that takes into consideration how markets have performed, our forward-looking projections of markets, as well as how much closer they are to age 100,” Oldroyd explains. “So each year, participants will be able to take a look at that number and then, interacting with the tools, make the determination if that number makes sense for them and gives them flexibility around doing some scenario analysis. Is that right for me this year, and if I do something different, what might that look like in my retirement spending journey? The focus of the tool is to think through spending.”

The 2021 J.P. Morgan Defined Contribution Plan Participant Survey findings show that 70% of defined contribution plan participants are concerned about outliving their money in retirement, while 85% say that they would likely leave their balances in their plans post-retirement if there was an option to help generate monthly retirement income. Additionally, the firm’s 2021 behavioral research, “Retirement By the Numbers,” finds that retirees need to replace more than 90%—in contrast to previous industry projections at 70-80%—of their working income in retirement.

J.P Morgan used its proprietary data and research from the Chase banking side of the business to develop the tool. Data will inform the withdrawal amount projection for participants each year.

“We’re able to look at—over half of American households bank with Chase—trends in how people spend, when they need the money, [and] what levels of income replacement they will need. That informs how we think about the design and goes into some of the digital tools that we provide,” Oldroyd says.

Retirement plan advisers and plan sponsors can access the tools immediately. Plan sponsors can also choose to embed the tool into their website. 

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