Employers continue to express concern about their staffers’
finances, with retirement readiness the top measure. According to the LIMRA Secure
Retirement Institute, 80% of employers in its 2015 401(k) Plan Sponsor Survey
said an important success measure of their company’s retirement benefit is
employee retirement readiness.
Nearly all employers (96%) in their role as retirement plan
sponsors measure employee retirement readiness. More than half use an
evaluation tool supplied by their plan provider, and 42% use employee surveys
as a measure.
Employer concerns over retirement preparedness are right in
line with findings from a national survey that shows just over half of working
families are “at risk” of not having enough saved to maintain their lifestyle in retirement.
That particular survey does not even factor in health care, LIMRA notes. Other research finds that nearly half of all working-age U.S. households do not own any retirement account assets.
Nearly all employers (92%) have discussed retirement
readiness with their advisers and plan providers. Two-thirds of the time, plan providers initiated
this discussion.
The LIMRA Secure Retirement Institute recommends
plan providers keep initiating retirement readiness discussions with employers
and encourage advisers to do the same. Through a constant dialogue, both
parties can better understand what solutions will work best to improve employee
retirement readiness.
The usual flow of retirement research and market commentary is
being complemented this week by a refreshing look at the fundamentals—at the
roles volatility and perception play in global markets.
There is an illuminating term being tossed around the financial
trade media right now, apparently coined by Warren Buffett, which summarizes
well the temperamental nature of investment markets: The Broken Clock Syndrome.
Leon LaBrecque, chief strategist and founder of LJPR
Financial Advisors, in Troy, Michigan, penned a blog post on the term and how
it explains current market movements. As the readership will likely know, global
markets are on a pretty wild ride this week, causing no small amount of investor
concern and consternation. (See “Accepting
Short-Term Volatility.”)
According to LaBrecque and Buffett’s theory of
broken clock markets, the volatility is completely normal and is actually
healthy for long-term growth prospects. “We have had seven years without a meaningful market decline
of 10%,” LaBrecque observes. “That is very unusual. The market will
have the tendency to overreact. We call them waves of fear and waves of
greed.”
In the parlance of Warren Buffett, the clock is always
either ticking slow or fast. “The market is either slow or fast,” LaBrecque
continues, “and is probably only correctly valued once in a while. Seven years,
coming off of the Great Recession, we’ve had a nice upward run.”
The slowing of a fast-ticking clock is a particularly apt
metaphor when looking at some of the main sources of the current market frothiness.
In the Chinese stock market, for example, the losses of the past month are
significant, but they are dwarfed by the stellar growth the market saw in 2014.
“What changed in the last few days?” LaBrecque asks. “Is
China going out of business? No. Is the U.S. economy going to collapse if China doesn’t
grow at 7.4%? No. Is $40 a barrel of oil just the start, is oil
going to $0? No. Is the market volatile, because it is driven by
human behavior? Yes.”
NEXT: Rational
corrections are good
The main message industry practitioners and pundits have been trying to impart
to investors this week is simple: While the clock is slowing a bit, it’s not
going to break into pieces the way it did in 2008 and 2009.
“In every year for the past 34 years, there has been a
negative point in the year,” LaBrecque adds, citing figures from Morningstar. “In
fact, the average of negative points for that 34 year period is -14.4%. However,
in 27 out of 34 of those years, there has been a positive return, averaging
11.1%.”
Another LJPR adviser and investment manager, James Duronio, reminds
his industry colleagues that the average retirement investor must be constantly
instructed that trying to successfully time the market is a futile effort
and even more pointless in the current environment.
“What's important to consider going forward, if you are
looking at your investments from a long-term strategic perspective, is the
outlook for the future,” he says. “Not a day or week from now, but over your
projected investment time horizon. Direct your focus toward your plan
rather than the day-to-day fluctuations of the portfolio.”
David Kelly, J.P. Morgan’s chief global strategist, earlier this
year told PLANADVISER the difference between a $65,450 return over 10 years on
a $10,000 initial investment and a $32,650 return in the same time period is
just 10 days. In other words, the top 10 days of returns for a decade can bring
in as much as half of the gross positive daily returns generated.
NEXT: Really, market
timing destroys wealth
Even more important, Kelly notes, is that six of the best 10
trading days for the S&P 500 between 1995 and the end of 2014 occurred
within two weeks of the 10 worst days. This means an individual that routinely
reacted to sharp market declines by converting his portfolio to cash and waiting
two weeks or more to buy back into equities earned only half the returns of a
colleague that stuck with the same portfolio and regularly rebalanced.
In more recent commentary Stewart Mather, head of independent
advisory firm The Mather Group, in Chicago, reminded advisers that their
clients are feeling real fear when they see the markets fluctuate this way.
“Fear of dealing with financial issues is all too common,”
he notes, and it prevents otherwise capable people from making sound decisions that
can help assure a comfortable retirement. One potential solution is to remind retirement
investors that they are also retirement savers—to emphasize the long-term
nature of portfolios, and that it’s not the right move to suspend 401(k) contributions
or abandon return-seeking investments when the markets drop 5% or even 10%.
Obviously those who are imminently about to retire will need
a different approach, but especially for young people just starting to save,
now is the time to instill an understanding of the fundamentals.
“Having even $10,000 invested in a retirement account at age
30 will grow to nearly $45,000 by the time one reaches age 60, assuming a
conservative 5% annual interest rate,” Mather concludes. “And that's without
adding another dime. That's the magic of saving regularly from an early age.”