Pension Funding Picture Still Tough for 2016

Market volatility, longevity and PBGC premiums are prompting sponsors to take a harder look at funding levels.

Expectations that the stock market will continue to be volatile, combined with the effect of new mortality tables and an increase in the premiums that the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) charges sponsors of defined benefit (DB) plans, are together prompting sponsors to take an even more careful look at the funding levels of their pensions, experts say.

The pension funding status of the nation’s largest corporate plan sponsors finished the year at 82%, unchanged from the end of 2014, due in large part to a rise in interest rates offset by a weak global stock market, according to Willis Towers Watson. With the Dow Jones Average falling by 1,648 points in the first three weeks of 2016, the funding status would probably be lower at this point, says Alan Glickstein, senior retirement consultant at Willis Towers Watson, based out of Dallas. “If we were measuring pensions now instead of December 31, the picture would be more dismal,” he notes.

Want the latest retirement plan adviser news and insights? Sign up for PLANADVISER newsletters.

Furthermore, because the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) allows DB plans to discount future benefit payments to a present value using a 25-year average of bond rates rather than a two-year average, this could potentially be inflating the funding status for some plans, Glickstein says.

“Very few plans are 100% funded,” says Marc Lieberman, chairman of the public pensions/alternative investments group at Kutak Rock LLP in Scottsdale, Arizona. “There are plans with funding levels as low as 7%, but I would say most plans are in the 60% to 80% range.”

For corporate plans that are funded 80% or less, “getting their funding ratio up is an important goal,” says David Godofsky, head of the employee benefits and executive compensation group and a partner at Alston & Bird in Washington, D.C. Additionally, there are “a lot of government plans that are poorly funded, even as low as 30% or 20%.”

NEXT: The first step to improve funding

The best way to improve the funding status of a pension plan is to put more cash into the plan, “and to do that in a way that meets the goals of your corporate objectives,” says Ari Jacobs, global retirement solutions leader at Aon Hewitt in New York.

Brad Smith, partner and pension consultant at NEPC, an investment consulting firm with $560 billion in corporate pension assets under advisement, based in Atlanta, concurs: “We’ve had some very good market returns over the past three to five years. Through the end of 2015, the S&P 500 was up 15%. We do not expect those returns going forward. We really believe we are in a low-return environment, and in that scenario, the best thing a plan sponsor can do is to put more money into the program.”

With the discount rate change which amended the Pension Protection Act (PPA), the minimum funding requirements for pension plans is lowered, says Pierre Couture, head of customized solutions for multi-asset strategies and solutions at Voya Investment Management in New York. “To better fund their plan, sponsors need to contribute more than the minimum required because the average makes them appear better funded,” he says.

Another option available for plans that are not frozen is to “reduce the accrual of future benefits,” Godofsky says. There are pensions that offer “rich provisions for members [and therefore] have lower funding levels,” Lieberman concurs. “This is very popular among municipalities and states, and it might be done by adjusting future cost of living standards.” Along these lines, sponsors could also increase participants’ contributions, although this is more common among public plans than it is corporate plans, Godofsky says.

NEXT: Borrowing

Some pension sponsors are borrowing to fund their plan, “which makes sense because interest rates are still low and it reduces the PBGC premium” on funding shortfalls, Couture notes. “Plus, the contributions and the loan are tax deductible.”

Public plans also have the option of issuing pension contribution bonds, Godofsky says. “That means you have traded future contributions into your pension plan for future payments on the bonds,” he says. However, there are risks to this strategy. “If you think your pension fund will earn a higher rate of return than the interest rate on the bonds, you come out ahead of the game. But if it doesn’t, then you have to pay the cost of servicing the bonds and make higher contributions to your defined benefit plan because the value decreased.”

Before a sponsor takes out a loan to fund their plan, they need to take a broader look at their overall use of cash, Glickstein says. “You have to look at the overall picture of the company and how many covenants they have on how many loans,” he says.

Of course, changing the investment strategy is an option at sponsors’ disposal. Lieberman believes that an increasing trend among plan sponsors might be to reduce their equity exposure through a risk-adjusted portfolio. “One well-managed plan has intentionally reduced their return because they want to reduce the risk of their entire portfolio,” he says. “They have intentionally designed their plan to do less well when equities rise and better when equities fall. They might earn 1% to 2% less than their peers when equities are booming, but when they are falling and their peers lose 20%, they might lose only 2%. Everybody in the field is cognizant that they have to reduce the volatility. These plans cannot bear these wild swings in their valuations.”

In addition, plans are increasingly interested in reducing their pension liabilities and improving the funded ratio by either paying lump sums to participants or purchasing group annuities and then adjusting the portfolios potential for income that matches pension liabilities, Couture says. Overall, he says, “With the help of their consultants, pension plan sponsors have done a good job of creating a glide path to reduce risk.”

Investment Manager Views May Be Lessons for Retirement Plan Investors

Findings from a Northern Trust survey show corporate earnings and U.S. economic growth are among the top concerns of global asset managers—but even with emerging volatility managers are not turning off risk. 

Among the good news in Northern Trust Asset Management’s quarterly market outlook survey, the vast majority (84%) of asset managers believe that weakness in emerging markets has “less than a 25% probability of turning into a global recession over the next year.”

Retirement plan investors could be forgiven for thinking otherwise after yet another week of whipsawing markets that at one point saw the bluest of blue chip indices, the DJIA and S&P 500, both approach 20% losses measured year on year. And indeed, “a potential slowdown in emerging-market economies” remains the top concern identified by investment managers, while expectations around U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings also continue to be low for the short term.

Never miss a story — sign up for PLANADVISER newsletters to keep up on the latest retirement plan adviser news.

For the second consecutive quarter, investment managers ranked a slowdown in emerging markets as the biggest risk to global equity markets over the next six months. U.S. corporate earnings ranked as the second-highest risk to equity markets, and a slowdown in the U.S. economy ranked third, up from sixth place in the prior quarter, Northern Trust explains.

According to Christopher Vella, chief investment officer for multi-manager solutions at Northern Trust, a lower percentage of managers expect U.S. corporate earnings, job growth or GDP to accelerate than has been the case for a number of years. “Most managers still expect U.S. economic activity to remain stable,” he observes, “but this change in expectations is worth monitoring going forward.”

The survey of approximately 100 money managers, taken throughout December 2015, also sought views about the expected market reaction to extended low oil prices—and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s likely course on interest rate hikes. “Although most managers surveyed (53%) expect corporate earnings to remain the same, more managers expect earnings to decrease than increase (24% to 23%) over the next 6 months,” the survey report notes. “On the U.S. economy, those who expect an increase in U.S. GDP over the next six months fell to 23%, down from 54% in the second quarter of 2015. Sixty-four percent of respondents expect U.S. GDP growth to remain the same over the next six months.”

With all this in mind, more than two-thirds (68%) of managers still expect the Fed will continue to raise rates with a series of small increases. About 20% expect the Fed will hold off on any further increases after its December rate hike, given the current volatility and other global economic factors.

NEXT: More on the slippery price of oil

“In December, with oil prices falling below $50 per barrel, managers were asked how sustained prices at that level would affect U.S., developed non-U.S. and emerging markets equities,” Northern Trust explains. “Nearly half (49%) expect low oil prices to have a negative impact on emerging market equities, and 45% said there would be a positive impact on developed non-U.S. equities. For U.S. equities, 25% expect a negative impact, with the rest divided between positive and neutral.”

Looking at portfolio positioning, there has been a somewhat modest increase in the percentage of managers identifying as “more risk-averse,” at 22%, up from 17% in the third quarter of 2015. Just over two-thirds of managers expect volatility to increase in the U.S equity market over the next six months.

“Even with lower energy prices, more than half of the managers maintained the same level of commodities exposure as the prior quarter,” notes Mark Meisel, senior investment product manager for multi-manager solutions at Northern Trust. “About an equal percentage of managers added to their commodities position as lowered their exposure. More generally, increased market volatility for some managers has led to increased risk-aversion but most managers have not altered their portfolios.”

This is a key lesson for retirement plan investors to absorb: Managers are not reacting emotionally to the currently swings in equity prices, opting instead to focus on the underlying fundamentals. In fact, according to asset managers in the survey, “non-U.S. equity markets are viewed as having the most attractive valuations.”

For example, 54% say European equities are undervalued, and 52% see emerging market equities as undervalued. U.S. equities are seen as undervalued by just 21% of managers, “the lowest percentage since the survey began in the third quarter of 2008,” Northern Trust explains. “Forty-one percent of investment managers view U.S. equities as overvalued, up from 37% in the third quarter.”

When it comes to picking winners and losers in the equity markets, information technology has a bullish rating from 68% of managers, followed by financials, at 38%.

The full Investment Manager Survey Report and a video on survey highlights can be found on Northern Trust’s web site at www.northerntrust.com/managersurvey.

«