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After years
of increasing attention and use by institutional investors, practitioners
across the retirement plan industry are likely familiar with the positive
features of index funds. As the fiduciary duty prescribed by the Employee
Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) mandates close attention for fee issues,
it’s no surprise low-cost index funds—which also generally feature better
transparency—have grown in popularity among retirement plan advisers and
sponsors.
One firm,
however, argues that “the rush of money into index equity funds has officially
ballooned into a market mania.” Wintergreen Advisers is far
from the first advisory firm to push back against purely passive
investment strategies, but its stance takes an interesting (if somewhat
vitriolic) perspective on what makes overzealous indexing precarious.
A new
analysis from Wintergreen, appropriately titled “How the Votes of Big Index
Funds Feed CEO Greed and Put Americans’ Retirement Savings in Peril,” estimates
that passive U.S. equity funds gathered an impressive $167 billion in assets in
2014, ending the year with about $2.2 trillion in assets under management
(AUM). Wintergreen suggests the growth has been fueled by “huge advertising and
PR budgets” among some of the largest and well-known index fund providers—and
that the lion’s share of these assets are indexed to the Standard & Poor’s
(S&P) 500.
“All told,
the three giants control more than $8 trillion of assets, much of it in passive
investment strategies,” Wintergreen reports. “Students of market history
know that index mania—like other market fads before it—will not end well.”
David
Winters, CEO of Wintergreen Advisers, adds that trillions of ordinary
investors’ dollars are now committed to “a mechanistic strategy that, day in
and day out, simply buys stocks without a thought for their actual underlying
value.” As the research explains, since the S&P 500 is
market-capitalization weighted, “it suffers from the flaw of being driven by
momentum.” This means rising markets cause more money to flow into the biggest
companies, which drives their prices higher, which triggers more buying by
passive index funds, on and on until the bear arrives.
Of course
investors want to see market growth and growth within their indexed portfolios,
Winters says, but the analysis suggests this pumping pattern has investors
continuing to pour dollars into index funds “in the gravely mistaken belief
they’re enjoying a virtually free lunch.”
“The sad
reality is that index funds have turned ordinary investors into the pawns in a
game that undermines the integrity of American markets and imposes costs on
society that don’t show up in index fund expense ratios,” the report claims.
“We believe that one consequence of this is that billions of dollars of value
created by American companies are being diverted to a select few executives [of
S&P 500 companies], while ordinary investors, distracted by ‘low fee’ hype,
are subjected to dangerous risk concentrations in their retirement portfolios.”
Next: What’s the problem with indexing?
Concentration and governance.
The research
goes on to suggest the massive assets of “Big Index” providers make them the
largest block of shareholders in America’s largest publicly traded companies.
Wintergreen’s analysis shows that the three biggest index fund providers hold a
combined average of 16% of the shares outstanding of the top 25 companies in
the S&P 500.
The research
makes some subtle arguments for why these massive holdings are problematic from
a governance and concentration perspective—basically, the problem is that the
mega passive investment shops are not leveraging their weight as top
shareholders to drive good governance and business practices among the
companies into which indexed dollars eventually flow. Wintergreen specifically
points to problems in CEO compensation and risk concentration among top
companies in the S&P 500 Index that it feels could eventually derail the
strong ongoing growth for indexers.
Wintergreen’s
analysis of the voting histories of the leading S&P 500 index funds run by
Vanguard, BlackRock and State Street, for example, finds that over the past
five years for the 25 largest companies in the S&P 500, these firms’ funds
cast their votes in favor of management equity compensation plans 89% of the
time, and opposed executives’ pay packages less than 4% of the time. “They
withheld or cast votes against directors a meager 4% of the time,” the report
continues.
Liz
Cohernour, chief operating officer (COO) of Wintergreen Advisers, says this
means a significant block of the shareholders in a given S&P 500 company
“can generally be counted on to support executive compensation packages, even
when shareholders are receiving meager returns.” The report goes on to suggest
that it’s unlikely for the top index fund providers to suddenly take a more
active shareholder role, given the strength of their inflows under the current
way of doing business.
Meanwhile,
the Wintergreen report also suggests that “index hype creates an illusion of
safety and diversification.” By Wintergreen’s estimate, the top 25 securities
by market value in the S&P 500 in 2014 contributed over 33% of the index’s
total return, while the top 25 securities by performance contributed 55% of the
index’s total return. Apple, Microsoft, Facebook and Intel alone accounted for
over 20% of the total return of the S&P 500 in 2014.
Beyond this
potentially harmful risk and return concentration, the report says, thousands
of companies are overlooked and left by the wayside in indexed portfolios:
“They are deemed to be less desirable for no reason other than the fact that
they are not included in the [underlying] index … Business valuations and
fundamentals have seemingly ceased to matter, with stock prices largely
determined by momentum. Somewhere, Ben Graham, the father of value investing,
is rolling over in his grave.”
While the
momentum-driven style of passive investing has worked well over the past six
years, leading retirement plan fiduciaries to ask how to leverage
the best of active and passive, Wintergreen warns that these gains are
almost entirely predicated on the fact that the U.S. market has been on a
“nearly relentless upward trajectory.”
It remains to
be seen how a year of market losses could shake the trend. As the report
concludes, “The flood of cash into passive investments without regard for any
sort of underlying fundamental analysis of valuation leads to a continued
emphasis on companies or sectors that are popular—since they are performing
well, as long as the flows into passive funds continue, they must continue to
go up. But what will happen to investors when the music stops and the punch
bowl is taken away? We believe that the same small group of companies that have
led the market's rise will likely be among the biggest losers, as passive funds
are forced to sell the largest and most liquid names in the index.”