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Many 401(k) Investors Made Knee-Jerk Decisions on Short-Term News in November
Last month saw increased trading activity, with many mistimed flights to fixed income ahead of the U.S. election, according to Alight.
According to the latest “Alight Solutions 401(k) Index” report, November was marked by heightened 401(k) trading activity, with all six above-normal trading days occurring within the first nine trading days of the month.
“The 401(k) Index data for November shows that many 401(k) investors reacted quickly to short-term news, rather than sticking to a long-term strategy,” says Rob Austin, head of thought leadership at Alight Solutions. “In hindsight, it’s clear that this approach was less than ideal; investors sold low and bought high, missing out on gains. Advisers can use this lesson to help clients stay focused on retirement goals instead of trying to time the market.”
Much of this activity was concentrated before the U.S. presidential election, as investors moved funds from equities to fixed income in a bid to shield their portfolios from potential market turmoil.
However, as markets rallied and stocks soared post-election, investor sentiment shifted, driving funds back into equities. This rapid pivot underscores a tendency among 401(k) participants to react to short-term events, rather than adhering to long-term investment strategies, according to Austin.
The Alight Solutions 401(k) Index statistics for the month of November and year-to-date:
Summary | November | 2024 YTD |
Total transfers as percentage of starting balance | 0.10% | 1.14% |
Fixed days | 9 (45%) | 148 (64%) |
Equity days | 11 (55%) | 83 (36%) |
Above-normal days | 6 (20%) | 39 (12%) |
Trading inflows during the month predominantly moved into large U.S. equity, bond and money market funds, while outflows were concentrated in company stock, stable value and target-date funds.
Asset classes with most trading inflows in November | Percentage of inflows | Index dollar value (millions) |
Large U.S. equity funds | 50% | $134 |
Bond funds | 21% | $57 |
Money market funds | 11% | $28 |
Asset classes with most trading outflows in November | Percentage of outflows | Index dollar value (millions) |
Company stock | 42% | $112 |
Stable value funds | 35% | $93 |
Target-date funds | 10% | $51 |
These shifts, combined with market movements, contributed to a slight uptick in the average asset allocation to equities, which rose to 72.7% in November from 72.1% in October. New contributions to equities remained stable at 69.3%.
Target-date funds had the largest balances at the end of the month, followed closely by large U.S. equity funds.
Asset classes with largest percentage of total balance at the end of November | Percentage of balance | Index dollar value (millions) |
Target-date funds | 31% | $84,748 |
Large U.S. equity funds | 30% | $81,103 |
Company stock funds | 7% | $19,730 |
TDFs also saw the most contributions in the month, again followed closely by large U.S. equity funds.
Asset classes with most contributions in November | Percentage of balance | Index dollar value ($mil) |
Target-date funds | 56% | $673 |
Large U.S. equity funds | 19% | $231 |
Company stock funds | 6% | $71 |
The Alight Solutions 401(k) Index tracks the daily transfer activity among 13 asset classes.
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