As Aon Hewitt explains, a “normal” level of relative
transfer activity is when the net daily movement of participants’ balances as a
percent of total 401(k) balances within the Aon Hewitt 401(k) Index equals
between 0.3 times and 1.5 times the average daily net activity of the preceding
12 months. “High” and “moderate” daily relative transfer activity occurs when the net daily
movement of 401(k) assets exceeds two times and 1.5 times the average daily net activity, respectively.
Importantly, most of the elevated trading days occurred early in October,
following a sharp but short-lived increase in volatility in U.S. and global markets. In fact, the first 13 days of October brought five days of the seven days of moderate or high trading
activity. To put that in perspective, from January through September 2014,
there had been only 12 total elevated trading days among 401(k) plan
participants.
At the time, Rob Austin, director of retirement research at
Aon Hewitt, told PLANSPONSOR that market volatility was clearly to blame for
elevated (often inappropriate) trading. He also said participants’ tendency to move more towards
fixed-income investments as equities lose value is ultimately self-defeating, “because
it results in participants’ buying equity high and selling equity low.”
While
October was a volatile month for the markets, most equity indices still
trended upward. United States large-cap equities, as measured by
the S&P 500 Index, returned 2.4% during the month of October.
Small-cap
equities outperformed their large-cap counterparts as the Russell 2000
gained
6.6%. The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index, a common measure of the
fixed-income
market, posted a return of 1.0% and the MSCI All Country World ex-U.S.
Index, a
benchmark used to represent companies based in the developed markets
outside of
the U.S., had its second consecutive month of negative performance, with
a
return of -1.0%, according to Aon Hewitt.
Overall for October, nearly $400
million of 401(k) balances transferred, representing roughly 0.25% of total
assets—both record highs for the year. All but one of the above-normal days had
participants favoring fixed-income funds over equities, Aon Hewitt says. In
fact, fixed-income assets were favored over equities on 57% of the trading days
in October. Transfers away from diversified equities (equity assets excluding
company stock) totaled $228 million.
Fixed-income funds also saw the
most inflows in October, according to the Aon Hewitt 401(k) Index. Bond funds
gained $176 million (44% of all asset trades); GIC/stable value funds received
$119 million (30%); while money market funds took in $65 million (16%).
Company stock funds led the net
outflow activity with $110 million (27%), followed by small U.S. equity and mid
U.S. equity, with $102 million (26%) and $85 million (21%), respectively.
Lifestyle and premixed funds lost $78 million (20%).
After
incorporating trading and market activity, participants’ overall allocation to
equities increased marginally to 65.7% from 65.5% last month. Future contributions
to equities decreased to 66.4% from 67.0%.