IMHO: London “Bridges”

I was in London for a few days last week. 

While it afforded a good opportunity to visit with a number of providers in the European retirement plan market, the primary purpose of my trip was to acknowledge thefund manager and consultant standouts recognized by PLANSPONSOR Europe (which has just celebrated its one-year anniversary).

The luncheon itself was fascinating: As is often the case with such gatherings here, many of the attendees were well-acquainted with each other, a number had common employment histories and, as in the U.S., even those who worked for competing firms at the moment seemed to sense that it could change at any time.

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Once we got past the potential impact of the latest Icelandic volcanic ash cloud, the traffic disruptions attendant with President Obama’s visit (which, of course, had been impacted by the latest Icelandic volcanic ash cloud), and the beautiful weather (which, fortunately, was apparently completely unaffected by the latest Icelandic volcanic ash cloud), the discussion turned to “shop.”

The group had some interesting questions for me:

Why are American pensions so heavily invested in stocks?

For the record, this audience apparently felt that a 60/40 allocation to stocks/bonds was the mirror image of a prudent allocation.  Of course, every fund is different, and every fund’s allocation is different.  I mentioned that I thought that, certainly over the long haul, American pensions have likely benefited more than they have suffered from their exposure to equities.  However, regardless of the realities, I know that those who make those decisions believe that.  One of the consultants at my table asked a corollary to the first question: why more American pensions haven’t adopted a stronger LDI (liability-driven investment) focus.  To that, I offered three observations: First, I think most American plan sponsors still believe they can, in fact, do “better” by pursuing alpha.  Second, while I think most American plan sponsors who have given some thought to LDI are intrigued with the concept, they aren’t quite convinced that the “theory” will work in reality.  But finally, I sense that more have embraced the concept than is probably appreciated, albeit in baby steps (purists will, of course, argue that incremental adoption can actually serve to undermine the effectiveness, but…).

Are target-date funds now totally discredited? 

The question was actually posed in a way that suggested that, whether they were or not, they should be.  That said, my short answer here was, absolutely not; that while 2008 had certainly shaken some, the rebound in the markets seemed to have taken much of the edge from that issue.  I noted that while I’ve seen data that suggest some are more interested in something other than a pure “date-based” allocation approach, and that, while there is more discussion around the whole “to versus through” retirement date design, my sense was that most providers hadn’t made significant shifts to their approach (or assumptions), and that few plan sponsors (and no participants) had made any changes in their target-date fund, or allocations to that suite.

In sum, I told this audience that I thought that the market rebound had given our industry a second chance on target-date designs—but that I wasn’t sure anyone was taking advantage of that, sadly.          

 

Why are Americans so opposed to annuities?

I told the audience that I have, on more than one occasion, noted that if we could figure out how we taught participants that annuities were “bad,” and could deploy that to teach them how retirement savings were good, we’d be on to something.  That said, I still think that there is a behavioral issue here—one that makes individuals reluctant to hand over a large pot of money today to someone else (particularly a large, faceless institution) so that they can have little pieces of that returned to them over a long period of time.  That the annuity ostensibly is expensive, that the individual may lack trust in the institution to which they are expected to hand over a life’s savings, that they can’t access those funds in an emergency—those are also legitimate issues.

All that notwithstanding, I think things could change—and perhaps change dramatically—if American plan sponsors were, in any credible way, encouraged to connect this post-employment investment decision to their workplace retirement plans.  The reality today is that most plan sponsors see this as an extension, rather than a reduction, of liability (and with reason, IMHO); there is a palpable sense that product development is still ongoing (and that the best model isn’t yet on the market); and beyond that, we all know that the Labor Department is evaluating alternatives/approaches as well.  In sum, employers have no compelling reason to jump in here, alongside several key indicators that suggest doing so could be expensive and/or premature.  Consequently, they are inclined to wait—and until that dynamic changes, it seems unlikely that participants will be overcoming their current reluctance, either.

 

Lessons Learned

Asked to share insights on “lessons learned” by the American pension system, I noted a couple.  First off, I noted that I thought we had never helped workers appreciate the value of a pension, and that, certainly from a financial standpoint, employers had probably never fully appreciated what it would take to fulfill that promise.  Moreover, that we were only just beginning to focus on helping workers appreciate what it would take to provide a lifetime of post-retirement income—and that, for some, that message would come too late to be of value. That whereas workers once blithely assumed that the market would “fix” their savings shortfalls, today’s most common unrealistic assumption was that they would simply be able to work longer (this, by the way, is a problem of a different ilk for employers in the UK, who might actually have to provide that employment).

One lesson that I thought we were only recently beginning to “get” was that, if retirement security is going to rely on a defined contribution system—particularly one where “defaults” are driving utilization—you can’t be coy about what it’s going to take.  And defaulting people into these programs at contribution levels that don’t even maximize the match, much less come close to what needs to be saved to achieve financial security in retirement—well, that is literally setting people up…to fail. 

Study Says Committee Styles Mirror Members

The vast majority of investment committee members surveyed said they prefer a democratic approach. 

In fact, 89% of some 200 institutional investors overseeing plan assets surveyed by Vanguard stated that that was the preferred leadership style for those committees.  Perhaps not surprisingly, 80% of survey respondents characterized their own style as “democratic,” while just 6% characterized themselves as autocratic, with 14% citing laissez-faire.   

“The clear majority of respondents not only describe their committee’s leadership style as democratic, they also said they strongly desire this type of structure,” said Catherine Gordon, who leads Vanguard Institutional Advisory Services.  In unveiling the findings, she added that they were surprised to find that committees’ decisions and behaviors were largely similar across leadership styles. 

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Asked to characterize their investment committee’s group decision-making process: 

43% – the leader inspires extra effort among the members to try harder, complete more than expected to do, and have a heightened desire to succeed 

30% – said there was a tendency to discuss only the information that was available to the group’s members before the discussion – which Vanguard noted could lead to “shared information bias” 

16% – noted that the committee contained members who do not make meaningful decisions 

10% – cited a tendency for the group to acquire information that confirms the group’s views, and to disregard information that runs counter to those views – which Vanguard cited as “confirmation bias” 

10% – said that members were more interested in avoiding conflict and maintaining unanimity that realistically appraising the various courses of action (“group think”) 

6% – acknowledged a tendency to develop “unduly optimistic” forecasts of the future 

 

"Shared information bias means that the committee members follow an insular process and don’t seek out new information from each other that may broaden their perspective and inform their decision-making," said Jill Marshall, an investment analyst with Vanguard Investment Strategy Group and a coauthor of the leadership styles study. "As for the leader’s ability to get the most out of committee members, this is definitely an area to pay attention to since the demands on investment committees are so great." 

Best Practices 

The survey also highlighted best practices and committee behavior: 

  • 97% - review asset allocation at least annually  
  • 92% - document meetings, attendance, member contributions, reasons for manager change, etc.  
  • 91% - conduct regular meetings on all aspects of the portfolio, both administrative and investment-related  
  • 90% - ensure that the process used to oversee the portfolio conforms to committee documents (such as the investment policy statement)  
  • 82% - reviews the investment policy statement at least annually  
  • 77% - regularly assesses whether portfolio fees are reasonable relative to performance expectations  
  • 76% - assess portfolio risk at least annually 

On the other hand, only 35% encouraged additional education or training for members on relevant investment topics.   

The survey, conducted in November/December 2010, is the third of Vanguard’s annual investment committee surveys and is part of a broader research agenda to better understand the dynamics of decision-making by investment committees.  It solicited responses from more than 200 institutional investors overseeing defined benefit, defined contribution, and nonprofit assets.  

The full results from the survey will be available in June. 

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