IMHO: Hurricane Forces

It’s been a stressful week—and it’s not over yet. 

 

Over the past 10 days, I’ve managed to survive three college move-ins, an earthquake in our nation’s capital and—with a little luck—a hurricane bearing down on the Northeast even as I write this column.

Now, I know it’s summer—Labor Day is only a week off—and there’s a lot looming over our industry’s head, but the fact is, I am—perhaps like many of you—having trouble focusing on anything other than Hurricane Irene. 

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See, we live in a neighborhood that seems particularly prone to losing power, and we’re frequently the last in our town to have it restored—and that’s when we don’t have a hurricane sweeping the Eastern seaboard! 

It’s bad enough to be without power for several days, but the last time it happened, it was accompanied by some significant rainfall, and we quickly found out (the hard way) that the sump pump that normally keeps that extra water from pouring into our basement requires electricity to function.  Fortunately, we were able to borrow a neighbor’s generator before things got too out of hand, and once we were past that crisis, I determined never to go through that again.  Figuring that a small portable generator was a prudent investment, I did a little online shopping, decided I knew NOTHING about portable generators, made a mental note to go back to it when I had time to deal with it… and never did. 

Now, life throws a lot of curve balls at you—and forces of nature, more often than not, simply happen with little, if any warning.  Hurricanes, on the other hand, you tend to see a long way off.  Oh, there’s always the chance that they will peter out sooner than expected, that landfall will result in a dramatic shift in course and/or intensity, or that, like with Hurricane Katrina, the real impact is what happens afterward.  But still, hurricanes don’t generally spring up out of nowhere the way that tornadoes (or earthquakes) do.  Incredibly, these massive storms with 100+ mile-per-hour winds seem to creep slowly toward land (with the relentless determination of a zombie in a George Romero classic) over a series of days.

In theory, that provides you with time to prepare—but, this week anyway, it mostly seems to have provided time to wonder why I didn’t do more.

I suppose a lot of participants are going to look back at our working lives that way as they near the threshold of retirement.  They’ll remember the admonitions about saving sooner, saving more, the importance of regular, prudent reallocations of investment portfolios.  Sure, you can find yourself forced suddenly into an unplanned retirement, but most have plenty of time; not only to see it coming, but to do something about it.

But only if they choose to do so before their retirement storm makes landfall. 

White Paper Discusses “Dividend Growers”

A recently published white paper from investment manager Cohen & Steers maintains that dividend oriented companies are "strongly positioned to continue raising pay-outs and deliver solid returns." 

The report, “Return of the Dividend Growers,” authored by Rick Helm, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Cohen & Steers, points out numerous reasons for investors to seek out dividend paying stocks, including:

  • Since 1926, dividends have contributed more than 40% of the U.S. market’s total return.
  • Dividend payers outperform nonpayers and do so with less volatility. 
  • Dividends have been raised; net payments rose by a record $25.5 billion in the first half of the year.

“History tells us that quality companies with stable, growing dividends have generated better returns with less volatility than those that do not pay dividends,” Helm writes. “But when the economy is in the early stages of expansion, investors often gravitate toward riskier companies with the potential for the fastest earnings growth and multiple expansion. The latest cycle has been consistent with this pattern, leaving dividend growers behind in the stimulus-induced rally among lower-quality stocks.”

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Helm says this trend is changing for the following reasons:

  • Quality companies that can demonstrate consistent cash-flow growth stand to benefit as higher-risk capital appreciation opportunities become harder to find.
  • Improving earnings and large cash reserves have given management teams greater confidence to increase dividends, potentially bringing payout ratios back in line with their historical average.
  • Dividend growers have a history of performing well when inflation and interest rates rise; two macro issues of concern that may further enhance their appeal to investors.

“We think this is a long-term trend, not the trade-of-the-week,” Helm says. “The combination of the investing demographics, the companies’ cash on hand and other factors make dividend paying stocks attractive for the foreseeable future. When a company increases their dividend, it’s really about their confidence in the company going forward. That’s as important, if not more so, than the amount of the dividend they receive.”

The white paper can be downloaded here.

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