GAO Issues Call to Examine American Retirement System

According to a GAO report, it has been nearly 40 years since a federal commission has conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the nation’s approach to financing retirement.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has examined challenges to retirement security for Americans, drawing from prior work and others’ research, as well as insights from a panel of retirement experts about how to better ensure a secure and adequate retirement, with dignity, for all.

In a report, the GAO notes that fundamental changes have occurred over the past 40 years to the nation’s current retirement system. In particular, it says there has been a marked shift away from employers offering traditional defined benefit (DB) pension plans to defined contribution (DC) plans, such as 401(k)s and 403(b)s, as the primary type of retirement plan. “This shift to DC plans has increased the risks and responsibilities for individuals in planning and managing their retirement,” GAO says.

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The agency also notes that economic and societal trends—such as increases in debt and health care costs—can impede individuals’ ability to save for retirement.

According to the GAO report, the three pillars of the current retirement system in the United States are anticipated to be unable to ensure adequate benefits for a growing number of Americans due, in part, to the financial risks associated with certain federal programs. GAO notes that Social Security’s retirement program is projected to be unable to pay full benefits as soon as 2035. Long-term fiscal projections show that, absent fiscal policy changes, the federal government is on an unsustainable path, largely due to spending increases driven by the growing gap between federal revenues and health care programs, demographic changes, and net interest on the public debt.

In addition, the report notes that the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) has reported that its multiemployer plan program is likely to run out of money by 2025.

GAO adds that individual savings and savings in DC plans are inadequate to fund a secure retirement.

According to the report, it has been nearly 40 years since a federal commission has conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the nation’s approach to financing retirement.  A panel of retirement experts convened by GAO in November 2016 agreed that there is a need for a new comprehensive evaluation. GAO says the experiences of other countries can also provide useful insights for ways to improve the system.

“Congress should consider establishing an independent commission to comprehensively examine the U.S. retirement system and make recommendations to clarify key policy goals for the system and improve how the nation promotes retirement security,” the agency concludes.

The full GAO report may be downloaded from here.

Northern Trust Takes a LDI Approach for its TDF Glidepath

The firm looks at a plan’s demographics and creates a glidepath that both controls for and seeks out risk.

When benchmarking a target-date fund (TDF), “the key point is to shift the focus from measuring the fund against a custom index to actually meeting the goal of achieving equal consumer discretionary spending pre- and post-retirement,” says Sabrina Bailey, global head of retirement solutions at Northern Trust Asset Management in Chicago.

“The defined benefit (DB) world has been using this approach for decades, and after the passage of the Pension Protection Act, their view of liability-driven investing increased significantly,” Bailey says. “In the DC [defined contribution] construct, the liability is the target retirement income and measuring the savings rate to keep up with that liability. For example, if an individual is on track for retirement or a plan sponsor has a strong plan design, they could take less risk in the investment portfolio and still achieve equal consumer spending pre- and post-retirement while avoiding a down market.”

Northern Trust outlines this more conservative approach to creating a TDF glidepath in its white paper, “What’s the Funding Status of Your DC Plan?” The paper states: “Assets within a DC plan should serve a purpose, and that purpose is not to accumulate a large amount of excess assets over one’s working career. A DC saver’s excess assets may likely be used more effectively elsewhere during the accumulation phases, i.e. to pay down debt prior to retirement.”

“Additionally, well-documented behavioral research studies indicate that the pain retirement savers experience from investment loss is greater than the joy derived from equal upside gain. Therefore, TDF investments should aim to meet the retirement liability, as opposed to exceed the liability,” according to the Northern Trust white paper.

To accomplish this, Northern Trust’s TDF series, its Focus Funds, have a proprietary Income Replacement Rate Framework that allows the firm to determine the appropriate replacement rate for participants in different DC plans, Bailey notes. To accomplish this, Northern Trust “looks at what participants are making today; what they are saving; balances ; the plan design, including company matches, deferral rates and escalation; taxes; and the average retirement age,” she says.

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Thus, as opposed to off-the-shelf TDFs that might predetermine an income replacement ratio of 75% or 80%, for a particular plan, Northern Trust might determine that it is actually 78%, and that will then let the asset management team know what the asset allocation should be for that particular plan, or even build a custom TDF, Bailey says.

NEXT: Goals-driven investing

Northern Trust’s TDFs are also built to provide downside protection, according to another white paper by the firm, “Glidepath Innovation to Drive Better Participant Outcomes.” The paper states: “Our glidepath design and construction process utilizes our asset allocation philosophy, which builds on the importance of financial asset diversification, global equity diversification and inflation sensitivity.

“Financial assets, which include both risk control and risk assets, are diversified to potentially reduce volatility and seek to protect against downside market events. We employ these methodologies in a goals-based framework called goals-driven investing (GDI),” the firm says.

Northern Trust’s portfolio managers then look at a five-year forecast for economic activity and market returns. “Additionally, we consider a qualitative lens where, each year, key themes emerge that we believe will affect the economic and financial market landscape,” Northern Trust says.

The Focus Funds are also designed to take a participant through retirement, Bailey says. According to the firm’s DC funding status white paper, that is up to age 95. Northern Trust then “empirically encodes the federal tax code” into its TDF model, to account for tax, Social Security and health care” into the funds’ glidepath, Bailey says.

The Northern Trust Focus funds also “take lifecyle expenses into consideration by relying on academic studies and economic research” into spending patterns in retirement, Bailey says. Another key component is “human capital—but Northern Trust looks at human capital in a different way than our competitors,” she says. “We look at the present value of future savings in order to reach an individual’s retirement goals. Imagine you are participating in your 401(k) plan and saving $100 every two weeks. That is what we consider the human capital. It is a bond-like investment because it is contributed on a regular basis. The consistent savings allows you to take more risk in equities.

“As you get closer to retirement, the number of contributions will decrease, so we offset that with an allocation to a bond-like portfolio that has more income characteristics,” Bailey continues. “That drives our glidepath and goals-driven investing. The whole concept is to move away from a risk/return framework to look at the income the TDFs will provide.”

As Northern Trust notes in its funding white paper: “The objective for any target date fund should simply be to efficiently fund the retirement liability, enabling participants to reach those goals—not to outperform an index, generate higher total returns than other mangers or take unnecessary risk to grow assets in excess of the liability.”

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