Promising Post-Pandemic Alternative Asset Classes

Experts say the COVID-19 pandemic has put a spotlight on certain alts that, at this juncture, have not been widely embraced by institutional investors.
PA-012721-OSC 3 Alternatives illustrations_Melinda Beck-web

Art by Melinda Beck

Noyack Capital Partners is an alternative investment platform for accredited and institutional investors with a focus on what its managing partner, CJ Follini, calls “mobility hubs and future-forward supply chain infrastructure.”

In a recently published analysis, Follini says the coronavirus pandemic has had a profound impact on the challenges and opportunities of investing in the industrial real estate market, particularly in parts of the global economy related to the movement, storage and delivery of consumer goods.

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“The increase in all types of e-commerce has compressed five years of anticipated supply chain evolutions into 18 tumultuous months,” Follini says. “The activity has sent the industrial real estate market into overdrive, but it has also put pressure on an already tight industrial supply. Before the pandemic, most major industrial hubs were operating at record low vacancy rates, and now vacancy rates have compressed even further.”

In Follini’s view, the rapid adoption of e-commerce put a massive strain on existing infrastructure almost overnight. This has meant a flurry of demand, limited space to support it and, as a result, soaring rent growth in the industrial real estate sector. Alongside these factors, of course, have come opportunities for accredited and institutional investors to make strategic investments.

“Both investors and developers are hurrying to take advantage of the attractive fundamentals,” Follini says. “In our upcoming investments, we see big box, dry goods warehousing as the least attractive of all types of industrial—even though that’s what a lot of capital is chasing.”

The Next Phase of Infrastructure

Follini’s firm is focused on industrial facilities that serve what it calls “next-mile needs,” or properties equipped to evolve alongside changes in technology and culture. Examples of these changes include autonomous vehicles and buildings that support food service and grocery delivery.

“Cold storage is also at the top of the list of target assets,” Follini says. “Food and grocery delivery has increased demand for cold storage facilities, but there is a limited supply. Cold storage is a much more complex build and requires significant attention to specialized infrastructure such as climate-controlled environments and concrete that won’t freeze and deteriorate. This has built-in a generational undersupply for this asset class. It will take a lot more development and management effort to increase the supply and it won’t happen overnight.”

What is also clear is that the pandemic accelerated the online shopping trend and, because construction takes time, the relationship between supply and demand has become misaligned, Follini argues. 

“The compression of the timing means the market pulled forward five years of increasing demand into one year,” he says. “What we don’t know is if additional demand is going to backfill future time periods. We don’t see a significant contraction in demand but, at some point, supply will reach equilibrium with that demand. If developers aren’t aware of this tipping point, we could end up with enormous oversupply within the next two years. The demand side is much greater for cold storage in the long run because you don’t have the same amount of supply and the easy money coming to the market won’t chase these complicated builds.”

The Interplay of Technology

In a related analysis published by PGIM, the global investment management business of Prudential Financial, the firm concludes that the most unique businesses with the strongest durable growth profiles today exist in the technology and consumer discretionary sectors.

“As technology’s importance in our lives continues to grow, we believe we’re in the early innings for secular trends shaping our digital future,” the PGIM experts suggest.

PGIM argues that, as companies big and small continue to seek ways to establish and enhance their online capabilities in an increasingly digital world, direct-to-consumer (DTC) business models will grow ever more important.

“DTC companies reap the benefits of huge pricing power, better inventory management and end-to-end control of their distribution, which translates into better earnings,” the analysis states. “Future new companies will start online first, giving this trend a long runway for growth across industries such as e-commerce, connected fitness, online dating, streaming, electric vehicles and mobility, to name a few.”

Related to this trend, PGIM argues, will be a broad focus on leveraging cloud-based internet applications.

“With enterprise migration to the cloud still in the early days, this powerful but nascent trend will expand across all industries and companies,” PGIM says. “Demand will increase for cloud-based applications, especially in commonly needed areas such as unified communications, cybersecurity and infrastructure management. Soaring e-commerce activity makes platforms that can help grease the skids of commerce by facilitating seamless online transactions more vital. Digital payments and e-commerce enablement applications are two prime beneficiaries that are likely to see impressive growth trajectories for years to come, given low e-commerce penetration rates in many parts of the world.”

PGIM says the companies with the best technologies and execution in their respective spaces will be the likely winners.

Physical Assets and Inflation

Speaking during a recent panel event hosted by the Active Investment Company Alliance (AICA), Gaal Surugeon, portfolio manager at Brookfield Asset Management’s Public Securities Group, emphasized that investing in physical assets such as infrastructure and real estate provides inflation protection with stabilized yield potential and long-term growth prospects tied to the economic cycle. He adds that the short- and mid-term prospects for real assets are also attractive now. As the global economy continues to bounce back from COVID-19-driven shutdowns, there is a clear need for investment in infrastructure and to fund “upgrades to the underpinnings of society like airports, toll roads and more,” he said.

According to Surugeon, the sectors within real estate that appear most attractive both on fundamentals and valuation are residential, office and hospitality—or “those that were effectively in the crosshairs of the global pandemic.

“Within the infrastructure sector, transports are most tied to that reopening thematic, and we do believe that airports and toll roads, for example, have very strong pockets of opportunity,” he continued. “But they still remain very regionally dependent and that’s largely because this global reopening, especially with mobility, has been fairly uneven.”

Looking ahead, like so many others, Surugeon will be keeping a close eye on inflation.

“There is likely going to be a shorter-term impact on things such as commodity price inflation, and those largely may abate as supply chain disruptions ease,” Surugeon said. “But there’s also the potential that we may find more areas of structural inflation, some that are longer term in nature. What comes to mind is wage inflation. We’ve seen a tremendous amount of pressure on wage growth, largely tied to the slack in the unemployment market, and that may prove to be more structural in nature.”

At the end of the day, Surugeon said, infrastructure tends to benefit from this type of inflation.

“We predict roughly 70% of the listed infrastructure space has some type of inflation passthrough or inflation escalator built into either the underlying contracts or the regulatory nature of certain sectors, and that’s where we believe the real asset space is most likely poised to benefit,” he concluded.

A Status Report on Private Equity in Defined Contribution Plans

It’s been a roller coaster ride for PE firms looking to break into the U.S. DC plan market.
PA-012721-OSC 2 Alternatives illustrations_Melinda Beck-web

Art by Melinda Beck

In 2015, private-markets asset manager Partners Group developed what it called the first private equity (PE) fund tailored for 401(k) plans, according to Robert Collins, head of private wealth with the firm in New York City. The timing for the planned launch was unfortunate, however, because it coincided with a class action lawsuit against Intel Corp.’s DC plan and its investments in hedge funds and private equity. The Intel lawsuit had a “chilling effect” on plan sponsors’ consideration of PE, says Collins, as they decided to wait for the lawsuit’s resolution.

But, as the suit moved through the courts, the case for including PE funds in DC plans was gaining momentum with regulators, courts and researchers. In June 2020, the Department of Labor (DOL)’s Employee Benefits Security Administration (EBSA) released an information letter discussing the use of PE investments in DC plans. The agency was responding to an inquiry from Groom Law Group on behalf of Pantheon Ventures and Partners Group. Both firms had developed PE-focused collective investment trusts (CITs) with a liquidity component specifically for DC plans.

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The firms’ PE funds would be used in multi-asset class vehicles such as custom target-date, target-risk or balanced funds, within plans that maintained adequate overall diversification, liquidity and limited PE allocations. The thrust of the DOL letter was that sponsors should assess their ability to select and manage PE investments and decide whether they should retain external expertise.

PE investment managers saw the DOL guidance as good news. Michelle Rappa, managing director with investment management firm Neuberger Berman in New York City, says “it was exciting to see the letter come out” because it “gave plan sponsors the ability to have a road map of how the Department of Labor thought they should be thinking about adding private equity.”

An Important Letter

Before the DOL’s letter, the topic of PE in DC plans was dead, Collins says. The industry had been waiting for the department’s guidance and a resolution of the Intel lawsuit. The letter resuscitated the market, leading to renewed interest among plan consultants and sponsors, he adds. Still, sponsors were concerned in 2020 that the agency’s position might change under the incoming Biden administration.

A supplemental DOL statement issued in December 2021 under the Biden administration clarified and reinforced the previous letter. The agency emphasized that its first letter had addressed specific circumstances and was not a broad endorsement for adding PE to DC plans, particularly smaller plans that might lack the requisite analytic and oversight capacities. The supplemental statement “allows the initial guidance to stand,” says Susan Long McAndrews, partner in Pantheon Ventures in San Francisco. “It reiterates some of the messages in the original letter. In our view, it doesn’t seem to attempt to restrict or revoke that early guidance.”

The case for PE received another boost when the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California ruled in Intel’s favor in early January. That decision removed a hurdle for plan sponsors considering alternatives, including private equity, for their plans. “The cherry on the cake is the Intel lawsuit now being completed and thrown out with prejudice, importantly,” says Collins.

PE and Excess Returns

Recent research has largely supported PE’s potential role in plan participants’ portfolios. In a December report, the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) ran simulations to examine the impact of replacing part (5%, 10% or 15%) of a 401(k)’s equity allocation with private equity. The results found that “every level of private equity modeled resulted in additional 401(k) participants (who are currently ages 35 to 64) being able to retire at age 65 without running short of money in retirement.”

An October 2019 report published by the Defined Contribution Alternatives Association (DCALTA) and Institute for Private Capital (IPC) simulated portfolios from 1987 to 2017, also finding benefits from including PE investments. Per the report: “Overall, we demonstrate the superior historical performance of portfolios with private funds and document diversification benefits from buyout funds especially. … Our results suggest that typical diversified portfolios benefit from allocations to private investments but that the nature of the benefit depends on the type of private investment.”

“The [DCALTA] results showed that over every time period with private equity in the target-date fund [TDF], you increase the returns and you reduce the risk—you got a higher Sharpe ratio,” says Rappa, referring to a common metric used to understand the return of an investment compared with its risk. “Overall, you were getting better returns with lower volatility.”

PE Questions Remains

The debate over PE’s returns is unsettled because simulation results depend partly on a given research model’s inputs, such as the private and public return indexes being used for comparison. A June 25, 2020, Wall Street Journal article noted that it can be “hard to tell how much return private equity delivers.” The article cites stats from Cambridge Associates that the “average annual return for an index of U.S. private equity funds after fees over the decade ending December 31, 2019, was 14.35% versus 13.44% for the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index.”

The Wall Street Journal article pulled data from Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings to examine returns for two PE funds. According to the Journal, the Partners Group Private Equity Master Fund LLC earned an average 7.34% per year after fees for the four years ending March 31, 2020, versus 7.48% for the Wilshire 5000. For the period from April 1, 2015, through March 31, 2019 (the latest figures available), Pantheon’s AMG Pantheon Master Fund LLC returned approximately 9.6% versus 10.1% for the Wilshire 5000.

These average annual return figures do not say anything about the returns’ volatility, however. As Rappa points out, if two investments have comparable returns but one set of returns is less volatile, the lower volatility investment will have a higher Sharpe ratio, which is considered to be more favorable.

Some Considerations and Conclusions

Supporters say the case for including PE in DC plans is straightforward: Such investments bring access to companies that aren’t traded publicly and potentially higher returns that can diversify a plan’s holdings. The main arguments against inclusion are the funds’ higher fees and lack of the liquidity and daily valuations required for a DC plan. But PE managers can overcome these objections, Collins maintains. He cites Partners Group’s use of the CIT structure as evidence that the daily liquidity and pricing challenges can be surmounted.

“We’re able to leverage some of our existing solutions inside the CIT and make it immediately invest with daily liquidity and daily pricing,” he says.

So far, at least, most U.S. DC plan sponsors haven’t been jumping into the PE pool. A PGIM survey conducted in early to mid-2020 found that just 4% of the responding DC plans were using private equity as part of a TDF, and only an additional 3% were considering its use. A July 2021 Morningstar article reported that none of the 10 largest TDF providers were including PE in their funds or CITs.

Looking forward, sources say the December 2021 DOL letter and the Intel decision may spur more interest, but there have been no recent public announcements about plans adding PE. Rappa says that while there have been “lots of conversations and discussions” about PE’s inclusion, so far, the market is in the “early innings.”

The Role of Trendsetters

The PE-adoption trend likely will follow the usual industry pattern of large plans taking the lead, says Rappa. Large plan sponsors and consultants understand the asset class, often from their defined benefit (DB) experience, and they are likely to be the first movers, she says.

Rappa is also aware of some packaged TDF providers looking into PE investments, but she is cautious about smaller plans’ participation.

“You need to be a certain size of a plan to even build a custom target-date fund,” she says. “I think if you eventually do see private equity in the DC construct in the small-plan market, it’s probably going to be either adviser groups building a product for their advisers or a packaged target-date provider bringing a different product to market that includes private equity as one of the sleeves in its target-date fund.”

Collins is unreservedly optimistic about PE’s prospects. He is aware of at least three new competitors (to Partners Group) working on products and says he believes 2022 will be the year that PE is finally adopted meaningfully in DC plans, most likely through target-date funds that are part of pooled employer plans (PEPs).

“I think that the SECURE [Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement] Act will turn out to be an additional positive catalyst for the growth of these investments,” he says. “The stars are aligned. 2022 is going to be the magical year when it starts to happen.”

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