Insurance Companies Are Experiencing Investment Challenges

Since some retirement plan investments are tied to insurance company portfolios, should fiduciaries monitor these accounts like other investments?

Art by Isabella Fassler

According to research from Cerulli Associates, U.S. insurance companies, which have more than $4 trillion in mostly investment-grade bonds in their portfolios and more than $6.2 trillion in total invested assets, view the late stage of the credit cycle as “very concerning” as compared to other investment concerns, such as the low-interest-rate environment, market volatility and market liquidity.

“A prolonged period of historically low long-term rates has proven extremely challenging for insurers from a business perspective, both making it difficult to reach annual book yield goals and raising the present value of longer-term liabilities,” Cerulli says.

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The firm’s surveys show nearly two-thirds (64%) of respondents plan to increase their allocations to private debt and half expect to add to structured or securitized debt during the next 12 months. Among alternatives investments, which are limited in insurers’ general account investment portfolios due to regulatory capital constraints, a majority of insurers plan to add to infrastructure investments (75%), alternative fixed-income strategies (63%), and private equity (55%).

Why does this matter to retirement plan fiduciaries? Because the performance of capital preservation investment options, such as stable value funds and guaranteed investment contracts (GICs), depends on how insurers’ general accounts—and possibly other accounts—perform.

How Insurers Protect Portfolios

John Simone, managing director and head of Voya’s Insurance Investment Solutions business in Chicago, says the challenges of insurer’s general account investors is akin to the task of offsetting future liabilities for defined benefit (DB) plans.

“Rates staying low for long is an issue, as well as tightening of spreads with regard to the credit market. Longer-term investments are maturing, and new vehicles have lower rates,” Simone says. “Insurers need to generate rates of return to meet obligations, but they can’t dial up risk because that may cause their credit rating to go down. There are only certain things they can do to secure yields, like buying long-duration securities.”

However, he says insurance companies are well-suited to address these challenges because of the breadth of their access in capital markets. “At Voya, we favor private assets over public in many areas where an investor can get greater diversification and better yield and better protections. When an investor buys a public bond, it doesn’t have a say if the company starts violating covenants; it can only sell. But, with private assets, investors have some say,” Simone says.

Insurers are also using high-quality, low-volatility assets, such as federal home loan bank borrowing or floating rate borrowing to invest in floating rate securities, according to Simone. In business and finance, a floating rate loan (or a variable or adjustable rate loan) refers to a loan with a floating interest rate. The total rate paid by the customer varies, or “floats,” in relation to some base rate, to which a spread or margin is added (or more rarely, subtracted).

They are also buying securitized assets with terms not necessarily tied to corporate balance sheets. Simone says if firms securitize assets, the terms are tied to U.S. consumer asset-backed securities like credit cards, high quality student loan debt and mortgages. Securitization is the financial practice of pooling various types of contractual debt, such as residential mortgages, commercial mortgages, auto loans or credit card debt obligations (or other non-debt assets which generate receivables) and selling their related cash flows to third party investors as securities, which may be described as bonds, pass-through securities, or collateralized debt obligations (CDOs).

Investors are repaid from the principal and interest cash flows collected from the underlying debt and redistributed through the capital structure of the new financing. Securities backed by mortgage receivables are called mortgage-backed securities (MBS), while those backed by other types of receivables are asset-backed securities (ABS).

When investing in alternatives, Voya prefers primarily private equity or private mezzanine funds that provide attractive yields in areas it feels have asymmetric risk. According to Simone, “We feel comfortable in mezzanine renewable energy funds, currently generating around 11%. People need power, and there has been a shift globally from fossil fuels to renewable energy.” He says infrastructure is a theme with alternative investing.

Russ Ivinjack, senior partner at Aon Hewitt Investment Consulting in Chicago, says insurers do position portfolios to meet their current needs or, if they are planning for a market pull back, they may move into the highest quality securities. A pullback can also be seen as a buying opportunity. “Generally, what we’re seeing is insurance companies continue to diversify portfolios with Treasuries trending downward. Asset-backed securities and real estate debt are among the investing opportunities to boost yield,” he says. Ivinjack adds that it’s not just in their general accounts that insurers are moving to different investments.

Still, he says that because of the lower yield environment, the performance of stable value funds and GICs will trend downward.

Monitoring Insurer’s General Accounts

So, should retirement plan fiduciaries monitor insurer’s general accounts like they do other investments?

“Fortunately, insurance companies are rated by groups that make sure they are solvent,” Simone says. “And, there is protection in terms of the amount of capital they have to hold based on total assets they hold and risk.”

Larry Steinberg, an investment adviser with Claraphi Advisory Network LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser, and CIO of Financial Architects, based in Pasadena, California, says retirement plan fiduciaries are looking at the credit rating of the insurance company backing the investments in general accounts. And, as far as monitoring the investments backing annuities in qualified plans, he says that has not come up as an issue. “We are still seeing how annuities in qualified plans are going to work. Insurance companies are inventing products right now, and we’ll see what gains acceptance in the market,” Steinberg says.

However, Ivinjack says there are two things retirement plan fiduciaries should do. First, understand what capital preservation funds are investing in, asking whether assets are commingled with an insurance company’s general account or are kept in a separate account. Second, if they are exposed to an insurance company’s general account, look at the underlying credit quality of the insurance company.

He explains that, if the assets are separated, that fund is segmented for the sole purpose of paying investors in that fund and is not linked to the credit quality of the insurer. If plan fiduciaries are looking at a strategy where yields look much higher than peers, they should be concerned that could be too good to be true. “If yields are much higher, [plan fiduciaries] need to understand why,” Ivinjack says.

If yields are competitive for different capital preservation funds, retirement plan fiduciaries should compare what else is in the market, he adds.

“Most folks can bear a decent amount of volatility in equities, but in fixed income—the safety investment—everyone is concerned,” Ivinjack says.

The Business Cycle, Geopolitics and Retirement Investing

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have dominated financial news headlines, but investors have a lot more to think about, including “Brexit,” an aging workforce and a new normal for interest rates.

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Sitting down with PLANADVISER for a wide-ranging discussion about the global equity and fixed-income markets, Jim McDonald, executive vice president and chief investment strategist at Northern Trust Asset Management, said he does not expect the trade conflict underway between the U.S. and China to be meaningfully resolved.

“This will be a headwind to global growth for the long term, we believe,” McDonald says, adding that it’s very possible the U.S. and China will be fighting a low-intensity trade war for decades to come. “Taking a step back, we anticipate about 1% slower annual gross domestic product [GDP] growth in the U.S. and Europe over the next five years, which will lead to lower returns in risk assets. In addition, interest rates are lower today than they have been in the last five years, adding another challenge for retirement investors.”

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Wrapping all of this together, Northern Trust and other investment managers are voicing a more cautious outlook for returns over the next five years. According to McDonald, over the last five years, a balanced 60/40 portfolio of equities and bonds has generated a return of about 6.2% annually. He expects that will fall to 4.7% over the next five years.

“There will be a lot of noise about individual agreements to try and resolve the trade issue,” McDonald predicts. “Maybe China will buy more U.S. agriculture in a given year, and maybe we will hold back on some tariffs on certain products. But as a general matter, I don’t see the fundamental disagreements going away. The inherent issues are really intractable. What we want from China will significantly hinder their ability to continue to advance their economy in the same way they have. Therefore, they are going to be unwilling to make the major concessions.”

Reaching some similar conclusions, the Natixis 2019 Midyear Strategist Survey suggests portfolio outcomes for the coming years will be “more muted as markets grapple with a number of downside scenarios and little in the way of upside surprises.”

According to the survey, a “messy Brexit outcome” is the most likely downside risk in the eyes of professional money managers, while a rebound in growth driven by new central bank policy ranks as the most likely upside. The survey also identifies a more bullish outlook for U.S. sovereign bonds, emerging market equities, global real estate investment trusts (REITs) and emerging market bonds—due to accommodative central bank policy.

“The survey results clearly show that, in aggregate, our respondents don’t see a lot of positive market catalysts on the horizon—nor do they see a recessionary worst-case scenario as very likely in the near term,” says Esty Dwek, head of global market strategy, dynamic solutions, Natixis Investment Managers. “It’s a kind of a ‘muddle through’ outlook.”

Trade Tensions and Interest Rates

McDonald says the global trade tensions are “really important,” but it is also critical to understand these tensions are coming to the fore against the backdrop of a global economy that is slowing on its own because of age demographics and also because of the amount of outstanding debt held in developed economies.

“With slower growth and lower inflation, we don’t see a case for interest rates to meaningfully rise from here,” McDonald says. “The positive aspect of this is that investors won’t see accounting losses on the bonds that they hold. The negative is that the real return possibility remains relatively low. Our expectation for an investment grade bond portfolio is 2.5% to 3%, which is still better than inflation but remains low by historical standards.”

In his experience, McDonald says, one of the main misconceptions of investors is that they are going to lose money on bonds if interest rates go up.

“If you buy a bond today and you hold it, you are going to get the par back at maturity, so in this sense the risk of rising interest rates is really the reinvestment risk—which is just to say that you would have been better waiting and buying when rates were higher,” McDonald explains. “Our view is that investors should not be hesitant to put fresh money to work yearly, based on the interest rate environment that is in place right now.”

McDonald does not expect to see rates increase any time soon on the long side of the yield curve. He actually thinks long rates could come down further. Currently the 10-year Treasury yield is around 1.75%, but Northern Trust’s expected range over the next six to 12 months is lower, between 1.25% and 1.75%.

“So, we think rates are really at the top end of where they are likely to reside,” McDonald says.  “For this reason, we aren’t hesitant to buy medium- to long-maturity bonds right now.  This is where there is a disservice done by some of the media commentary that gets published about ‘losing money in bonds.’ What they are talking about is really an accounting loss as opposed to an economic loss. It’s an important distinction for individual investors to understand.”

Reaching for Late-Cycle Yield

At this point in the business cycle, McDonald worries about participants “reaching for yield.”

“Any time you have a financial crisis, it is caused in principal by excess,” McDonald says.  “Everyone is asking what the next crisis will be, and while predicting it is impossible, one possible contributor I believe will be that interest rates have been as low as they are for so long.  We need to be cautious about where too much money has gone without sufficient forethought and due diligence.”

McDonald cites the examples of private companies that have raised “absurd amounts of money” by private backers, but then the public markets wouldn’t support those valuations.

“The lesson here, we believe, is that investors have to be more selective and cautious about the credit assets they are buying,” McDonald says. “Our current view on credit quality is that it actually remains pretty good—the aggregate statistics absolutely support that view.”

Scott Donaldson, a senior investment analyst in the Vanguard Investment Strategy Group, also worries about participants reaching for yield in the current market environment.

“In a low interest rate environment, trying to juice returns on the fixed-income side means moving into higher yielding alternatives other than, say, government debt or even investment-grade credit,” Donaldson says. “Greater return potential may be there, but there are tradeoffs to doing this. The pros of course are that, yes, you may get an increase in yield for a period of time. The negative tradeoff is significantly lower diversification for the whole portfolio and higher risk concentration. The more credit you get into, generally, the higher correlation your portfolio will have to the equity markets, should something go wrong.”

Pursuing that higher level of yield makes sense for some people, but investors have to be willing to gain the higher yield by having a higher concentration in similar types of securities—lower quality bonds that are more correlated with equities.

“This means that, if something goes significantly wrong and the business cycle turns to a contraction, that extra 50 basis points you tried to squeeze out of the market may pale in comparison to the downside you could experience,” Donaldson explains.

In terms of specific holdings, Donaldson says, Vanguard invests sizably and believes strongly in the diversification potential of high quality non-U.S. government bonds. He freely admits these are actually even lower yielding on a local basis than the U.S. fixed income market.

“Instead of seeking higher yielding instruments, we feel that a strategic asset allocation of having non-U.S. bonds with another 30 or 40 countries is highly valuable even when their rates are low and even when they are, in some cases, negative,” he says. “Our strategy involves hedging the currency exposure to lower the volatility of those fixed-income instruments. In this sense, we’re not really giving up yield, we argue; we’re just getting it differently in an equivalent total return.”

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