Bye-Bye, Risk, Investors Want to Hit Goals

Today's investors appear to favor goal-oriented investment approaches that mitigate unrewarded risk over strategies that chase the highest potential returns, says research by Principal Global Investors.

A new report from Principal Global Investors, “Asset Allocation: No Longer One Size Fits All,” highlights the latest investment themes pursued by four investor groups that account for around 80% of assets in the global investment universe. These include defined benefit (DB) plans, defined contribution (DC) plans, retail investors and high-net-worth investors.

As markets continue to defy some aspects of traditional investment logic, investors understandably remain cautious, the report says, leading to an increased demand for strategies tailored to take account of investor concerns and minimize unrewarded risk exposure.

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“We are seeing investors operate with more caution,” says Barb McKenzie, senior executive director and chief operating officer of Principal Global Investors.

Baby Boomers are retreating from their previous risk-taking mode and now favor a high probability of certainty over a low probability of high returns, according to the report. McKenzie says this is backed up by Boomers’ selection of actively managed, income-producing funds. “Fewer and fewer investors are interested in tactically allocating through purely passive products today,” she says. “Beta is unpredictable, and investors crave predictability and income.”

The shift is not a short-term trend but the byproduct of a sustained low rate environment, the research says, and the change in attitude can be seen in the behavior of all four different investor groups.

DB plan investors that haven’t yet de-risked portfolios are turning toward liability-driven investing as they recognize that interest rates in developed economies are unlikely to increase dramatically for some time. Real assets and alternative credit structures are more prevalent because of their income and inflation protection characteristics.

DC investors continue to favor life-cycle funds thanks to their time-based, tailored approach. These funds support the goal of downside protection as they adjust to varying market conditions and the risk-appetite of investors at different times during the market and life cycle. Life-cycle funds also ensure that assets are rebalanced as market valuations move, guarding against the risk of buying high and selling low.

Retail investors are recalibrating their yield expectations in the face of sustained low interest rates, with many recognizing the benefits of dividend-paying stocks alongside more traditional income-producing bonds.

High-net-worth investors have moved away from a blanket focus on alpha to an emphasis on risk mitigation. These investors have become particularly cautious in developed markets and especially demanding in emerging markets in order to manage unrewarded risk. A preference for active management remains.

Key global trends in asset allocation and investor preference for certain asset classes that have developed between 2012 and 2014 include the following:

  • DB investors – The popularity of real estate has increased by 26%, from 40% in 2012 to 66% in 2014, while infrastructure has experienced an equally significant increase of 23%, from 43% to 66%. The popularity of alternative credit has increased by nearly 20%, from 38% to 56%.
  • DC investors –  Target-income funds recorded the largest increase in investor interest, growing from 34% use in 2012 to 56% in 2014. Target-risk funds saw an increase of 14%, from 36% to 50%. Target-date funds show an increase of 12%, from 52% to 64%.
  • Retail investors – Funds with an income focus have become the most popular choice over the last two years with an increase in investor interest of 14%, from 48% in 2012 to 62% in 2014.
  • High-net-worth investors – Real estate has become notably popular, showing an increase of nearly 25% in investor interest, from 37% in 2012 to 61% in 2014. Investors continue to prefer active management, with an increase of 25%, from 29% in 2012 to 54% in 2014.

One of the legacies of the 2008 economic crisis is the segmenting of the investor base as return expectations have dropped, the report says. If anything, ageing demographics have reinforced this trend. Investors can no longer be viewed as a generic group chasing high returns. That approach conceals more than it reveals, the report argues. It misses out on a new dynamic in asset allocation that is now firmly established. 

Under this dynamic, needs come before wants, liability matching before asset accumulating, and risk minimization before return maximization. The old style 60/40 equity-bond portfolio is fading into history, and like many other things, asset allocation is becoming more customized.

“Asset Allocation:  No Longer One Size Fits All” can be downloaded from The Principal’s website.

PANC 2014: Lifetime Income

Lifetime income in defined contribution (DC) plans is garnering more attention, but the solutions raise a number of topics, such as safe harbor, plan sponsors’ fiduciary responsibility and tax issues.

As the conversation about retirement readiness expands to address what happens after retirement, plan sponsors must face a host of pros and cons, as well as regulatory issues surrounding income-related products. According to Christopher Jones, chief investment officer (CIO) and executive vice president of investment management at Financial Engines, one concern of plan sponsors is how difficult it might be to unwind a specific income product or bring it outside the plan if they decide there is a better choice.

Fiduciary lock-in is a core issue that creates some rejection of these products, Jones said. The issue of guarantee does answer longevity protection, Jones said, and certainly annuities are an important piece in reaching a solution. But this doesn’t necessarily mean the product must be in the plan.

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One possibility is a managed account that allows for an annuity purchase to take place outside the plan, so that a plan sponsor can offer access to a stable income stream without having to put insurance into the plan, a solution that can appeal to both the participant and the plan sponsor. A key difference is that this solution does not make the decision of when to annuitize, Jones said. “Very few people are comfortable annuitizing,” he said, because of behavioral reasons and safety concerns. “People are unwilling to translate an account balance into an income stream.” Later, when they’ve had a chance to acclimatize to retirement, perhaps in their 70s, they are much more likely to see the benefit of longevity protection.

The reality is, Jones said, not every person should have everything annuitized. “If a household needs more annual income, the best way to do that is to buy more Social Security income. Defer the start date of your benefits and significantly increase the amount of payments—it’s a screamingly good deal, better than private insurance companies. Annuities are a core component and can be efficient and appropriate, but there are other ways to annuitize.”

“How is the average participant supposed to understand this whole concept of retirement income?” asked Michael Perry, president of Retirement Advisors LLC. “We’ve done a great job educating participants during the accumulation phase,” he pointed out. “We educated them very well on how to construct a portfolio based on their individual tolerance for risk. Now we want them to pay extra for a different idea 10 years away from retirement. We want them to be more aggressive when they’re scared or less aggressive, depending on what they chose.”

Finding a Fit

David Kaleda, principal at Groom Law Group, weighed possible concerns plan sponsors should have about their responsibility under the tax code of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA). “I think the current rule construct does work,” he said. “Even guaranteed products could fit in the current scheme. It doesn’t fit neatly, and some would argue it doesn’t fit well.”

One issue is the shift in thinking that has taken place since the rules were put in place, Kaleda says. Accumulation—snowballing into the biggest possible account balance—was the main point when the rules were put into place, with very little focus on the concept of decumulation. How participants should spend this money, and how they should make it last simply were not at the forefront of regulators’ and others’ thinking.

As an example, Kaleda pointed to the safe harbor regulations for qualified default investment alternatives (QDIAs). “Some people believe you could make the argument that a lot of guaranteed products and managed account products will fall under the QDIA,” he said. “I’ve heard from plan sponsors they would rather see an actual safe harbor built in.”

Kaleda said the constant struggle plan sponsors face—that tussle between advice and education—is another issue. Plan sponsors so often ask if they are giving education or advice, he said. “The general rule is, plan sponsors are willing to be fiduciaries in a lot of places, but not with respect to providing information on specific retirement income solutions,” he said. “They don't want to be investment advice providers to their participants.”

Plan sponsors want to know, if they offer something with an insurance product in the plan, what the impact would be on their fiduciary duty? “The kicker is that the regulations are focused on situations where the plan sponsor fiduciary is making the decision to annuitize or purchase a product that is insurance just one time,” he said. “Once the decision is made, the person is outside the ERISA system and plan sponsors don’t have to worry,” Kaleda pointed out.

On tax issues, Kaleda pointed to the recent guidance on qualifying longevity annuity contracts (QLACs). “If we have a deferred income annuity feature within a plan, also known as a QLAC, the Treasury Department said you could implement those and not run into required minimum distribution problems,” he said. “Whenever you add features like this, you always have to consider the tax ramifications as well as ERISA.”

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