Basic Assumptions Have Changed for Institutional Investors

Investment product providers and consumers face many challenges in today’s dynamic markets—but a surge in equity investment in the last year shows a clear willingness to accept risk in pursuit of reward. 

Data provided by Willis Towers Watson (WTW) about the firm’s broad base of institutional investor clients offers a telling look at the wider marketplace in which defined contribution (DC) and defined benefit (DB) plans operate.

WTW serves pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, endowments, foundations and insurance companies. This group of large-scale investors, according to the firm, “increased their level of investment by almost 20% in 2016,” making new selections across different asset classes and “covering allocations made on both an advisory and delegated basis.”

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Of course this represents a business win for WTW, but it is more important to observe how the client base itself has fully committed to preparing for the long-term financial future. There is a new understanding that “what worked for investors in the past is unlikely to work in the future,” suggests Brad Morrow, head of manager research in North America with Willis Towers Watson. “So our clients are looking for new, innovative ways to achieve better risk-adjusted returns.”

Morrow describes this as “finding ways to work their assets harder.”

“That is at the top of our clients’ agendas, be it through reducing costs, adding diversity or creating bespoke solutions in a much more thoughtful way than in the past.” Morrow says.

Data provided by the firm suggests equities remained the most popular asset class in 2016, with total equity investment made jumping 25% above what was measured in 2015. Private equity selections jumped 75%, Morrow notes, “but there was also a general increase across other equity strategies such as active global equities, emerging markets and equity smart beta.

NEXT: Adding skill and illiquidity 

Many money managers have seen similar patterns. As Morrow describes it, “the attractiveness of adding skill and illiquidity return drivers has increased.” He warns that utilizing these asset classes successfully “requires more effort from investors.”

“Most active managers do not add value after fees,” he adds, “so the way to achieve success is by accessing skill through concentrated best-in-class portfolios, relentless cost management and using smart beta where appropriate to complement equity exposure.” 

Other key stats show investors moving into “diversifying strategies.” The number of selections in infrastructure and real estate increased by nearly 50% for the 12-month period ending December 31, 2016. Liquid multi-asset strategies also saw more than 70% growth during this period, WTW reports.

“Activity was meaningfully lower in some parts of the credit market, such as developed-market government and investment-grade corporate bonds, reflecting the valuation picture in the current state of significant monetary expansion,” Morrow concludes. “However, the credit universe is very wide, and there is scope to retain exposure to the credit risk premium through alternative forms of credit while at the same time introducing more illiquidity and skill in these less efficient areas.”

NEXT:  Other firms have a similar take 

During a recent conversation with PLANADVISER, Todd Cassler, president of institutional distribution for John Hancock, offered a very similar outlook regarding his own firm and its many clients and franchises. He very candidly suggested John Hancock Investments, like so many other diversified traditional providers with extensive and well-established distribution channels, is coming to rethink its identity for the new consumer age.

“We provide asset allocation solutions, manager selection research, beta/indexing and a number of other core competencies, and we have made a significant commitment to open architecture,” Cassler says. “One of the keys to remaining successful into the future is thinking of new and very clear and understandable ways to package these services. We must be able to respond to the particular needs of our different clients.”

In particular Cassler, believes the push into open architecture will be crucial in the decade ahead. This is not exactly a surprising position given his firm’s approach, but he does make some convincing arguments.

“More than 50% of all plans and nearly 70% of small plans still offer closed-architecture target-date funds run by their recordkeepers,” he observes. “This is despite the fact that we know that no single provider can be the best at everything, at every asset class, nor can they even remain the best in a single category forever.”

Cassler suggests clients generally react very positively to the idea of utilizing a multi-manager approach for the target-date fund, “and all the indications are that it will be increasingly difficult to operate in a bundled environment.” He concludes, like Morrow, that fees “have moved from the third- or fourth-most important consideration for institutional client to clearly be the first.” 

"Remarkably, for some investors it even seems that fees are outweighing net performance," he concludes. "It will be a challenge and an opportunity for John Hancock and other firms to work in such an environment."

Retirement Plan Participants Need to Prepare for Lower Returns

Retirement plan sponsors and participants are not prepared for the lower expected investment returns in the future, BlackRock finds, and it suggests actions they can take.

American workers are increasingly confident about their prospects for a financially secure and satisfying retirement—but many are not prepared for a coming period of lower investment returns forecast by the financial services industry, according to the latest DC Pulse Survey from BlackRock.

More than half (56%) of plan participants believe they are on track to retire with the lifestyle they want and nearly seven in 10 expect to be able to save enough to meet their financial goals in retirement. However, participants’ optimism might be based on some flawed assumptions about future investment returns.

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New consensus forecasts by Horizon Actuarial—based on a survey of 35 financial industry firms (including BlackRock)—suggest that, for the foreseeable future, stock and bond returns could be half that of recent decades. Yet, 66% of workers believe that over the next decade, returns on their savings will continue to be in line with what they have experienced in the past, while 17% believe they will experience even higher returns. Nearly two thirds (65%) of workers report they are unaware that industry expectations for future returns are notably lower than what they had seen or experienced in the past.

Many plan sponsors also have misperceptions about the likely return environment for retirement assets. Seventy percent of sponsors believe the annualized market returns for U.S. stocks over the next 10 years will be the same as or higher than the past. The same goes for bonds: 78% believe bond returns will remain consistent or be higher than they have been previously.

In the face of the new returns information, the confidence of both workers and sponsors slips. When presented with the forecasts, 39% of participants indicate they feel very or extremely concerned. Regarding the effectiveness of workers’ retirement planning, the survey shows that workers become less confident when it comes to such issues as whether they are saving enough to get a desired monthly income (32% confident vs. 44% initially) and taking an appropriate level of risk to meet retirement goals (33% vs. 53%). Similarly, the confidence of sponsors that workers are saving enough for the income they want drops 11 percentage points (to 38% from 49%).

Perhaps most concerning is that 70% of participants (as well as 54% of sponsors) say they do not expect to do anything different in the next 12 months to prepare for potential lower returns.

NEXT: What plan sponsors and participants can do

“Though plan participants are feeling positive about their retirement prospects, it’s critical that they understand how investment market realities are likely to demand significant adjustments in their retirement planning,” says Anne Ackerley, head of BlackRock’s U.S. and Canada Defined Contribution group. “If equipped with accurate information about what they’re up against—and good tools for meeting those realities—they can be much better positioned to take the right action steps to ensure a financially secure retirement.”

Both sponsors and participants separately suggest that, to some extent, it is the other group’s responsibility to address the issue. Nearly six of 10 participants (59%) rate “increasing the company match” on their plan contribution as the most helpful thing their employer could do to address the low-return environment, while 45% of sponsors say they would encourage participants to save more.

BlackRock recommends plan sponsors maximize plan design tools, including auto features and re-enrollment, to improve participant outcomes; revamp strategic communications to target participants at different life stages, whether they are nearing retirement or just beginning their careers; and restructure the company match and consider additional contributions to help manage the effects of reduced future returns.

For retirement plan participants, BlackRock notes that saving enough just to meet the company’s match likely won’t be enough. Participants should increase their savings rate and opt in to auto-escalation. Those employees who haven’t started saving in their workplace plans should do so now.

In addition, BlackRock says it’s critical to understand how a savings lump sum today will translate into an income stream tomorrow. Plan participants should use an income calculator to measure the gap between what they are on track to save and what they may need in retirement.

“Driving increased savings and maximizing the target-date fund option in [defined contribution] plans can make a meaningful difference in workers’ retirement planning,” says Ackerley. “In particular, target-date funds are an indispensable tool for ensuring that participants are properly invested according to their particular life stage as well as market conditions.”

The BlackRock DC Pulse survey is a research study of more than 200 large defined contribution plan sponsors and more than 1,000 plan participants in the U.S., executed by Market Strategies International.

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