Adviser Focus Shifts From Interest Rates to Equity Highs

With the equity markets riding high, more advisers are contemplating how to secure downside protection for their clients’ portfolios. 

Fidelity has published its latest Advisor Investment Pulse Survey, finding that retirement-focused financial advisers are squarely focused on boosting diversification and downside protection in client portfolios.

Given the machinations in Washington and state capitols across the U.S., tied to booming equity markets, it’s no surprise Fidelity finds “the government/economy” and “portfolio management” remained the top two areas of focus in Q2 2017. Additionally, the survey found that financial advisers have become increasingly concerned about market volatility and equity market level, ranked third and fourth, respectively.

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The previous edition of the adviser survey found interest rates ranked No. 3, dropping to ninth-most important in Q2. Fidelity says this is somewhat perplexing given the current rising rate environment and advisers’ focus on downside risk.

“With the stock market near record levels, advisers have become increasingly focused on making sure their clients’ portfolios are well diversified across the different asset classes, whether it’s equity or fixed income,” notes Robert Litle, head of intermediary sales, Fidelity Institutional Asset Management. “In this environment, we are seeing greater attention among advisers to protecting clients from any downside risk.”

Litle recommends, given the difficulty in predicting the direction and pace of interest rate changes with any certainty, that advisers should “consider different market and interest rate scenarios as they help investors stick to their long-term investment plans.” Simply put, interest rates “should remain top-of-mind for advisers, given the Federal Reserve’s forecasts for a gradual increase in interest rates.”

The Fidelity research points out that actively managed U.S. large-cap funds “have tended to outperform in months when interest rates were rising, and tended to underperform when rates were falling or flat … One reason could be that the average actively managed U.S. large-cap fund has historically held relatively more mid-cap exposure than its benchmark index.”

NEXT: Concerns about the downside 

Fidelity goes on to explain how, over the past few decades, mid-cap stocks with capitalizations of tens of billions down to $1 to $2 billion, have had higher dispersion of returns than mega-caps: “Higher dispersion in a group of stocks, which measures the difference of all the individual stock returns from the overall index, suggests potentially greater opportunities for active managers to leverage their stock selection skills, buy winners, avoid losers and thus earn higher excess returns.”

Fidelity’s research shows that concerns about the equity market levels and possible downside risk are leading many advisers to look for “opportunities to generate yield and income,” rising from No. 11 to No. 6 in the rankings from Q1 to Q2.

“As they do so, advisers should consider a possible valuation dynamic in the current market, which suggests another potential benefit for actively managed funds,” Fidelity suggests.

As the adviser survey report lays out, in recent years, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has become comparable to the dividend yield of U.S. large-cap stocks, “and many income-seeking investors have replaced bonds with high-dividend stocks in their portfolios.”

“Since high-dividend stocks tend to be in defensive market sectors like consumer staples, real estate, telecommunication services and utilities, the increased demand has inflated the prices of stocks in defensive sectors, pushing their price-to-earnings ratios to a 20-year high, relative to the rest of the market,” Fidelity explains. “However, a rise in Treasury bond yields could lead to a decrease in demand, resulting in lower P/E ratios and deflated returns. Many actively managed funds try to avoid overweighting stocks that are priced much higher than typical valuations and in some cases maintain greater exposure to non-defensive sectors, which have tended to beat the index when rates rise.”

Plaintiffs in Target Stock Drop Suit Failed to Meet Pleading Standards

A court shot down several actions plaintiffs suggested Target could have taken when it knew or should have known its stock price was artificially inflated.

A federal district court judge has dismissed claims in a combined Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) and securities lawsuit about the decline in Target Corp.’s stock price after its failed attempt to open stores in Canada.

A proposed class action lawsuit was filed in July 2016 by a participant in Target Corporation’s 401(k) plan, which alleges the company violated its fiduciary duties under ERISA by continuing to allow participants to invest in the company stock fund when it was no longer prudent. The plaintiff in the suit suggested several actions Target could have taken when it knew or should have known its stock price was artificially inflated. Less than a week later, another ERISA challenge was filed against Target.

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U.S. District Judge Joan N. Ericksen of the U.S. District Court for the District of Minnesota agreed with the defendants’ argument that the plaintiffs’ claims fail under the pleading standards articulated by the Supreme Court in Fifth Third Bancorp v. Dudenhoeffer. Ericksen noted that the Supreme Court held that in order for plaintiffs to state a claim “for breach of the duty of prudence on the basis of inside information,” they must plausibly allege an alternative action that the defendant fiduciaries could have taken that would have been consistent with the securities laws, and “a prudent fiduciary in the same circumstances would not have viewed as more likely to harm the fund than to help it.” The Supreme Court noted one example of an action that would be inconsistent with securities laws: “divesting the fund’s holdings of the employer’s stock on the basis of inside information.”

The plaintiffs alleged that Target defendants should have taken the following alternative actions to protect plan participants from artificially-inflated Target stock prices: (1) refrained from purchasing Target stock by “freezing” purchases and/or sales of Target stock in the Fund; (2) held plan contributions in cash or some other short-term investment rather than making future purchases of Target stock; disclosed the nonpublic, material information to the public; sent targeted letters to plan participants encouraging them to diversify holdings; sought guidance from the Department of Labor (DOL) or Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or outside experts; or resigned as fiduciaries.

NEXT: Refuting the suggested actions

“The [amended complaint] does not include sufficient allegations supporting the general proposition that a prudent fiduciary could not have concluded that refraining from purchasing stock by freezing stock purchases or freezing stock sales would do more harm than good,” Ericksen wrote in her opinion. “Plaintiffs primarily allege in a conclusory way that these alternative actions would have saved plan participants from future losses. Such naked assertions are analogous to those the Supreme Court found insufficient in Amgen.” 

According to the opinion, outside of the conclusory allegations, the plaintiffs allege that because the fund’s purchases during the first half of 2014 represented “one quarter of one percent” of market trading volume, it was “extremely unlikely” that a freeze implemented by the fund would have had a negative, appreciable effect on share price. “But this allegation is non-responsive to Dudenhoeffer’s concern that ceasing purchases could send mixed signals, causing a drop in stock price,” Ericksen wrote.

In addition, she said, choosing to hold investments in cash, rather than to invest in stock, on the basis of nonpublic information, presents the very same “between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place” scenario discussed in Dudenhoeffer. “To wit, plan participants have sued fiduciaries for holding too large a cash buffer, thereby creating ‘investment drag.’ Thus, here too, plaintiffs fail to plead sufficient facts to meet Dudenhoeffer’s pleading standard,” Ericksen said.

As for disclosing information to the public, among other points, Ericksen noted that the plaintiffs may not simply allege that because a stock price drop was inevitable, ipso facto almost any legal alternative action aimed at softening losses to participants would do more good than harm. “Moreover, plaintiffs’ theory as to why Defendants should have disclosed nonpublic information about the supply chain problems—because Target Canada was ‘doomed’ to failure—rests on hindsight. But compliance with ERISA’s duty of prudence is not evaluated from the ‘vantage point of hindsight,’” she wrote.

According to Ericksen, sending targeted letters recommending diversified holdings would likely add nothing to the information already provided to plan participants and could pose the same disclosure problems previously discussed. In addition, she said, seeking the DOL and SEC’s guidance is really no different from disclosure because doing so would still require public disclosure, and it is also unclear how outside experts would have affected Defendants’ decision-making. Finally, Ericksen said resigning would only shift responsibility to other fiduciaries. “Without allegations explaining how any of these alternatives would have been prudent in the circumstances or led to different decisions, plaintiffs fail to meet Dudenhoeffer’s pleading standard,” Ericksen wrote.

The court also dismissed a securities lawsuit, saying plaintiffs failed to show how Target’s public statements were misleading and contained omissions. Ericksen said pleading fraud by hindsight is a failure under pleading standards in securities litigation.

The plaintiffs in both the securities and ERISA actions requested leave to amend if the court decides to dismiss all or any part of their claims. Ericksen denied their requests.

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