Economic Slowdown, Inflation, Top List of Adviser Concerns in PGIM Study

A new survey by the asset manager also shows that more than half of respondents view U.S. Treasurys, investment-grade corporate bonds and municipal bonds as attractive investments.

When it comes to client portfolios, financial advisers are most concerned with an economic slowdown, followed by inflation and market volatility, according to the latest survey from PGIM Inc., the asset management arm of Prudential Financial.

When looking at the year ahead, advisers are most concerned, in order, with an economic slowdown (56%), inflation uncertainty (53%), stock market volatility (44%) and both interest rate uncertainty and geopolitical events (38% each), according to PGIM’s On the Minds of Advisors survey for the year’s second quarter.

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The survey, taken quarterly, saw interest rate concerns fall out of the top three portfolio management concerns, according to PGIM. In Q1, the top concerns were inflation uncertainty (65%), stock market volatility (52%) and interest rate uncertainty (43%). But a sense that the Federal Reserve is slowing what had been aggressive interest rate hikes intended to cool inflation has brought general economic slowdown and inflation to the forefront.

The concerns, according to PGIM analysts, have merit.

The firm noted in the report that, in PGIM Fixed Income’s “Q323 Quarterly Outlook,” Chief Global Economist Daleep Singh said that “one of PFI’s economic scenarios calls for ‘weakflation’ over the coming year—a combination of sluggish growth and declining inflation that hovers above the Fed’s target rate.”

Allocation Insights

When asked if they would make any allocation changes to portfolios during a pause in rates, investors were mixed. A slight majority said they would maintain course both in fixed income (49%) and equity allocation (46%). Meanwhile, 38% of advisers said they would increase fixed-income holdings, and 42% said they would boost equities. Just 13% in both categories said they would decrease holdings.

When it came to alternative investments, advisers were more solidly in the camp of holding pat (57%), with 18% planning to add alts to portfolios, 7% planning to decrease and 18% not offering the investment option.

Bullish on Treasurys

When it came to their most favored fixed-income sectors, advisers ranked, in order, U.S. Treasurys (67%), investment grade corporate bonds (64%), municipal bonds (61%) and high-yield bonds (42%) as the most attractive. That’s a reversal from the same period in 2022, when advisers ranked U.S. Treasurys as one of their “least-attractive” sectors, according to PGIM.

Meanwhile, two sectors that made gains between the first two quarters of the year were agency mortgage-backed securities (to 34% in Q2 from 24% in Q1) and asset-backed securities (to 22% in Q2 from 12% in Q1).

PGIM analysts also remain optimistic about municipal bonds, according to the report.

“This sector could rise further as the negative effects from the debt ceiling debate, interest rate uncertainty, and the banking crisis dissipate,” PGIM wrote in the report.

The survey questions were asked as part of Escalent’s Cogent Beat Advisor data gathered from May 24 through June 7 from a representative sample of 379 financial advisers. Q1 data was obtained from February 24 through March 7 and included responses from a representative sample of 476 financial advisers.

Adviser Opportunities in Serving the K-12 Education Market

Jim Kiley of Security Benefit outlines the multiple opportunities available to retirement plan advisers with school district employees.


There are more than 6 million employees in school districts across the country, presenting a broad opportunity to help these professionals, and their significant others, with their retirement planning needs.

According to the National Tax-Savings Association, only about one-third of educators have started a supplemental retirement plan such as a 403(b)/457 in their respective school district. This gap presents a tremendous need for financial education and coaching, as their once fail-proof retirement, based on state-provided defined benefit plans (pensions), are being changed dramatically or terminated altogether in many states. School districts are doing their part to help their employees, but there is room for additional guidance and assistance.

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By way of background, a 403(b) is similar to a 401(k) plan, except a 403(b) plan is designated for public school districts, higher education institutions and nonprofit organizations. A 403(b) plan offers a variety of advantages, including pre-tax or Roth contributions, tax-deferred accumulation, catch-up contributions and employer matching, that can help teachers and administrators down the road to retirement. 

Educators, now more than ever, should be working with a financial representative to create and execute a retirement plan that can last several decades in retirement and ensure their financial future. Financial service representatives focused on the K-12 education market have found a renewed urgency to help educational professionals with their retirement planning needs, given current economic challenges like higher interest rates and inflation. 

Educator Market Retirement Challenges 

Jim Kiley

Retirement readiness for today’s educators has become a challenge. Educators have long relied on pensions as a safety net and the primary source of income in retirement. However, with higher life expectancies, market volatility and other demographic factors, these defined benefit pension plans are now facing cutbacks and, in some states, termination. K-12 employees will need to supplement their reduced state pension and Social Security payouts with voluntary retirement savings through payroll deduction 403(b)/457 plans to cover the savings and retirement income gaps. 

Early in their careers, education professionals have many competing financial priorities, but they also have the greatest ability to grow assets over time, thanks to the power of compounding. Younger educators and school workers should strive to save as much as possible while still meeting their financial obligations, but all financial situations are personal and dependent on factors like paying higher-interest debts, such as student debt, first.

By mid-career, educators are hopefully well on the path to retirement, with an understanding of what the future holds in the way of pension income, potential health-care costs in retirement and the effects of inflation on the value of the dollar. Mid-career professionals should focus on preserving retirement assets. They should also look to increase their savings rates along with their salary growth, maximizing their opportunities during these critical years.

Late-career educators have many important decisions to make. When to retire? When to begin taking pension payments? What distribution option or how much to contribute? Financial professionals can assist by offering up solutions that focus on generating retirement income educators can use, as well as smart planning to retire on their terms. Financial professionals can also help make the most of state-provided plans and additional income sources.

Another challenge facing school employees is that, unlike the private sector, Social Security isn’t a given. When the program was first created in 1935, it was not available to public sector workers. States were eventually given the responsibility to decide if public employees would be able to participate, and not all can. This limits those workers’ retirement income sources to their pension and 403(b) account. By running a simulation for a teacher’s retirement income, a financial professional can provide critical insights into what retirement could look like and, if an income gap is found, suggest solutions to close it up. 

Business Building Opportunity 

A financial services career focused on the education markets can offer the following advantages: 

  • Access to 500-1,000 or more potential prospects per school district;
  • Accumulation of a significant client base quicker than most traditional methods; and
  • Ability to build a practice through financial planning with clients over time. 

Other opportunities will often present themselves as you seek to serve a household’s retirement needs. A teacher’s spouse may need guidance of their own, such as setting up a savings plan via a SEP, Simple IRA or Solo K, or they may be looking to consolidate their various 401(k)s into an IRA and more.

To cite an example from my past: I was working with the superintendent of a school district and helped him set up his 403(b) plan with monthly investments. He introduced me to his wife, who had just sold her law practice. She did not have a retirement plan in place. I worked with her to set up a non-qualified annuity account with a sizable investment balance.

Many initial 403(b) clients led to a much bigger household opportunity and a long-lasting relationship that helped support the couple’s retirement  and ancillary investment goals. 

Conclusion 

Serving our nation’s educators and their school district colleagues can be a rewarding career. These professionals are facing challenges relating to their pensions, the lack of Social Security, paying off student loans and more, and they need help to establish a viable retirement plan. The K-12 marketplace offers the rich potential of a diverse market full of additional opportunities, including household relationships. 

K-12 employees will need to supplement their reduced state pension and Social Security payouts with voluntary retirement savings through payroll deduction into 403(b)/457 plans to cover the savings and retirement income gaps.

Retirement plan providers offer resources, including educational materials, comprehensive tools and a range of products and strategies that can help meet different retirement needs.

Jim Kiley is head of Eastern sales at Security Benefit. 

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