Finding Growth in Market Vibrations

Retirement savers are often presented with a simple message on portfolio allocations: rebalance regularly. But one investment provider wants you to think deeply about rebalancing.

Richard Yasenchak, a senior vice president and client portfolio manager for INTECH, says his firm has long worked to provide smarter portfolios to a variety of institutional client types, including both defined contribution (DC) retirement plans and traditional defined benefit (DB) pensions. He explains that INTECH utilizes computer algorithms throughout the portfolio-building and maintenance effort to ensure decisions are made in a “scientific and disciplined way.”

The point of the approach is to optimize the processes that may seem less important than choosing a manager or setting the asset allocation—things like, exactly how often should one trade back to the target weight? And how does one watch for rising correlations in the portfolio when rebalancing?

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The firm has been particularly interested in developing “smart beta” portfolios, Yasenchak says, which are indexed portfolios that take an alternative weighting approach designed to bring better returns than the market capitalization-weighted index. For example, a smart beta portfolio may be designed to track the Russell 1000 index, but could set underlying equity allocations by factors such as revenue and earnings, among other rules. Other popular smart beta strategies today include equal weighting, fundamental weighting and minimum variance, according to INTECH.

Put simply, smart beta assumes that portfolios built with better diversification and rebalancing rules can generate returns that exceed the capitalization-weighted index without expanded risk or excessive oversight, Yasenchak explains. It may be an often-used and imprecise label, he admits, but the principles underlying “smart beta” are important for investors to grapple with. 

“When I talk about rebalancing and why it is so important to smart beta, remember that to really stay true to the risk and return exposure you’re seeking through smart beta, you have to regularly rebalance,” Yasenchak says. “What we’re arguing for at INTECH is that the rebalancing mechanism itself can be a big driver of portfolio returns. That’s what lies at the heart of our process.”

Yasenchak says the rebalancing programs implemented by INTECH seek to take advantage of the market’s cross-sectional volatility—or the largely random dispersion of individual stock prices and movements that exist within the market over a given short time period.

“Consider that over short periods of time—daily, weekly or even quarterly—stocks at the aggregate level are basically moving randomly,” Yasenchak says.  “It seems like a strange concept, but what makes one stock go up after a positive earnings report, yet another one go down after similar positive readings? It’s random to a large extent, at least over the short time frame we’re talking about.”

Yasenchak likens this short-term randomness to market “vibrations.” Because these vibrations are constant, he says it makes sense to build a portfolio that tries to account for the vibrations in deciding when to execute a rebalance.

“In essence we are trying to buy low and sell high as we pursue our target weights over time, and we’re doing our best to capture as much of the random upside as possible,” he says. “The other important piece is to ensure you have effective risk controls on this portfolio, that will attempt to ramp down on volatility in the case of exogenous events in which the market itself gets severely punished.”

Yasenchak says there is an ongoing focus in INTECH client meetings on how to manage overall risk. Clients for the most part are not totally adverse to risk, he explains. Instead, their focus is on reducing excess risk—they want to better match their portfolio exposures to their unique growth needs, and many are willing to accept lesser total returns for a greater likelihood of meeting specific targets.

This is another sense in which tracking cross-sectional volatility is a compelling opportunity in portfolio management, Yasenchak says, because it offers a way to track the amount of volatility and vibration in the markets. As cross-section volatility increases over time, the portfolio can incrementally adjust to the increasing risk in the market—and as volatility is dampened, the portfolio can get more aggressive. The important aspect of using cross-sectional volatility to guide risk exposure is that it does not depend on earnings forecasts or attempts to time the market with a fully risk on/risk off approach.

“It makes sense that when you see elements like cross-sectional volatility, and a few others, increasing across the entire marketplace, you want to adjust the portfolio to look more risk averse—and this can happen incrementally,” Yasenchak explains. “And importantly it’s not based on return forecasts—it’s purely based on risk levels in the marketplace, which we believe are easier to track and estimate.”

He hopes this approach to tracking and managing volatility will take a greater hold in the defined contribution plan world, perhaps as a part of target-date funds or within managed accounts.   

“As the investors are nearing retirement, the worst thing that can happen to this group is to take a withdrawal of money after the markets get hammered on the downside,” Yasenchak says. “For years in individuals’ equity portfolios we’ve only been looking at equity classes—whether it’s U.S. stocks or international or emerging markets. Within those asset classes there has not been as much of a focus on the granular level of managing the overall risk. We believe the overall experience of the investor is going to be better when more of an effort is made to manage overall portfolio volatility.”

Gross Exits PIMCO for Janus

Renowned fixed-income manager William H. Gross is leaving PIMCO, the company he co-founded, to join Janus Capital Group.

Gross will join Janus on September 29 and, effective October 6, he will manage a recently-launched Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund and related strategies. A new office is being established in Newport Beach, California, at which Gross will be based. 

Janus said Gross will be responsible for building-out the firm’s efforts in global macro fixed-income strategies and will join Myron Scholes, Ph.D., and other members of the Janus team focused on global asset allocation. 

However, the company noted his "concentration on such strategies will be separate and complementary to Janus’ existing and highly successful credit-based fixed income platform, built under the leadership of Janus’ Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer, Gibson Smith." 

“I look forward to returning my full focus to the fixed income markets and investing, giving up many of the complexities that go with managing a large, complicated organization,” said Gross. “I chose Janus as my next home because of my longstanding relationship with and respect for CEO Dick Weil and my desire to get back to spending the bulk of my day managing client assets. I look forward to a mutually supportive partnership with Fixed Income CIO Gibson Smith and his team; they have delivered excellent results across their strategies, which deserve more attention.”

“Bill Gross has an exemplary track record with decades of success and he will offer an exceptional approach to navigating today’s increasingly risky markets with a focus on macro, unconstrained strategies. His involvement provides Janus a unique opportunity to offer strategies and products that are highly complementary to those already managed by our credit-based fixed-income team,” said Richard M. Weil, Chief Executive Officer of Janus Capital Group, in a statement announcing the hire.

Deputy Takes CIO Helm at PIMCO

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Daniel Ivascyn will replace Gross as group chief investment officer at PIMCO. He has been deputy chief investment officer since January, when the firm created a structure of six deputy CIOs after former co-CEO Mohamed El-Erian left. (See “PIMCO Appoints Leadership Team.”)

Ivascyn, a managing director in the Newport Beach, California, office, is a lead portfolio manager for the firm’s credit hedge fund and mortgage opportunistic strategies. He is a member of PIMCO's executive committee and a member of the Investment Committee. Morningstar named him Fixed-Income Fund Manager of the Year (U.S.) for 2013. Before coming to PIMCO in 1998, he worked at Bear Stearns in the asset-backed securities group, as well as T. Rowe Price and Fidelity Investments.

Ivascyn has 23 years of investment experience and holds a master’s degree in business administration in analytic finance from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business and a bachelor’s degree in economics from Occidental College.

The five other CIOs are Andrew Balls, Mark Kiesel, Virginie Maisonneuve, Scott Mather and Mihir Worah. 

 

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