Many 401(k) Investors Made Knee-Jerk Decisions on Short-Term News in November

Last month saw increased trading activity, with many mistimed flights to fixed income ahead of the U.S. election, according to Alight.

According to the latest “Alight Solutions 401(k) Index” report, November was marked by heightened 401(k) trading activity, with all six above-normal trading days occurring within the first nine trading days of the month.

“The 401(k) Index data for November shows that many 401(k) investors reacted quickly to short-term news, rather than sticking to a long-term strategy,” says Rob Austin, head of thought leadership at Alight Solutions. “In hindsight, it’s clear that this approach was less than ideal; investors sold low and bought high, missing out on gains. Advisers can use this lesson to help clients stay focused on retirement goals instead of trying to time the market.”

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Much of this activity was concentrated before the U.S. presidential election, as investors moved funds from equities to fixed income in a bid to shield their portfolios from potential market turmoil.

However, as markets rallied and stocks soared post-election, investor sentiment shifted, driving funds back into equities. This rapid pivot underscores a tendency among 401(k) participants to react to short-term events, rather than adhering to long-term investment strategies, according to Austin.

The Alight Solutions 401(k) Index statistics for the month of November and year-to-date:

Summary

November

2024 YTD

Total transfers as percentage of starting balance

0.10%

1.14%

Fixed days

9 (45%)

148 (64%)

Equity days

11 (55%)

83 (36%)

Above-normal days

6 (20%)

39 (12%)

Trading inflows during the month predominantly moved into large U.S. equity, bond and money market funds, while outflows were concentrated in company stock, stable value and target-date funds.

Asset classes with most trading inflows in November

Percentage of inflows

Index dollar value (millions)

Large U.S. equity funds

50%

$134

Bond funds

21%

$57

Money market funds

11%

$28

 

Asset classes with most trading outflows in November

Percentage of outflows

Index dollar value (millions)

Company stock

42%

$112

Stable value funds

35%

$93

Target-date funds

10%

$51

These shifts, combined with market movements, contributed to a slight uptick in the average asset allocation to equities, which rose to 72.7% in November from 72.1% in October. New contributions to equities remained stable at 69.3%.

Target-date funds had the largest balances at the end of the month, followed closely by large U.S. equity funds.

Asset classes with largest percentage of total balance at the end of November

Percentage of balance

Index dollar value (millions)

Target-date funds

31%

$84,748

Large U.S. equity funds

30%

$81,103

Company stock funds

7%

$19,730

TDFs also saw the most contributions in the month, again followed closely by large U.S. equity funds.

Asset classes with most contributions in November

Percentage of balance

Index dollar value ($mil)

Target-date funds

56%

$673

Large U.S. equity funds

19%

$231

Company stock funds

6%

$71

The Alight Solutions 401(k) Index tracks the daily transfer activity among 13 asset classes.

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