US Retirement Market Evolves Amid Growth, Challenges

A retirement data expert discusses the aging U.S. workforce, rising Social Security dependence and a retirement coverage gap affecting millions of Americans.

Viraaj Kumar, an associate director of retirement product strategy at ISS Market Intelligence, presented an in-depth look at the U.S. retirement market’s current trends, growth opportunities and challenges at the PLANADVISER 360 conference on Wednesday in Scottsdale, Arizona. ISS Market Intelligence, like PLANADVISER, is owned by ISS STOXX.

Retirement assets in the U.S. now comprise roughly 40% of total family wealth, a rise from 36% in 1989, as defined contribution assets, especially 401(k) plans, have become a major growth driver. In Q1 of 2024 there was just under $40 trillion in retirement market assets in the US, of which defined contribution plans currently held approximately $11.1 trillion, largely within the 401(k) and 403(b) segments.

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Providing historical insight, Kumar explained the origin of multiple types of retirement plans, from the first defined benefit plan in 1765 to the rapid expansion of 401(k) plans after the Revenue Act of 1978. Social Security, established during the Great Depression, was designed as a safety net but now represents a major income source for many Americans due to the limited access to private retirement plans.

Retirement Coverage Gap and Social Security Dependence

One of the major challenges retirement readiness, Kumar noted, is the “retirement gap” between those with significant retirement savings and those with minimal retirement savings, a disparity created in part by limited access to employer-sponsored plans. Roughly one-third of U.S. adults have no dedicated retirement savings, resulting in an over-reliance on Social Security, particularly among lower-income earners. For the bottom income quintiles, Social Security is expected to provide more than 50% of retirement income.

Kumar also discussed a significant trend of outflows from defined contribution plans, primarily driven by the retirement of Baby Boomers. This trend has resulted in net-negative cash flows from the DC market, which are expected to persist until around 2030. Despite outflows, contributions from participants and employers reached record highs in 2022, showing continued engagement with DC plans among younger generations.

SECURE 2.0 and Plan Growth

The SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022, Kumar noted, is expected to drive future growth for small businesses through tax credits and automatic enrollment. Automatic features, now present in about 37% of retirement plans, are strongly correlated with asset growth. According to ISS, incentives in SECURE 2.0—which built on the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act of 2019—could impact millions of U.S. workers by encouraging smaller businesses to offer plans.

Kumar underscored the role of retirement advisers in educating the workforce, citing their influence on financial literacy and asset management. He emphasized that advisers who understand market shifts and regulatory impacts are best positioned to add value for clients, especially as 401(k) plans continue to grow. Currently, there are about 750,000 businesses offering 401(k) plans, while an estimated 6 million do not, which Kumar identified as a major opportunity for market expansion.

The U.S. retirement industry is at a pivotal point, Kumar said, with projected growth and increased plan adoption set against a backdrop of challenges like rising Social Security dependence and an aging workforce. With nearly 50,000 new retirement plans started in recent years, the market is expected to reach 1 million plans by 2030, offering strong business growth potential for advisers and asset managers.

Retirement, Wealth Convergence Still in ‘Early Innings’

Advisory business leaders working to bridge retirement plans and wealth services agree it’s still early days, but the market may be speeding up.

A panel of business leaders working to bridge plan sponsor advisement and wealth services for participants made the case for their business model, but also said this convergence is still in the “early innings” when it comes to execution.

Rob Madore, a vice president at MarshBerry who was moderating a session Tuesday at PLANADVISER 360 in Scottsdale, Arizona, asked participants to gauge where the retirement and wealth convergence is in the business cycle.

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“We’re in very early innings,” said Ken Bond, the chief corporate development officer for World Insurance Associates. “This is a very hard nut to crack, and I think people set lofty ambitions of what success would look like. … But if you can crack, and get a little bit of a lift out of, an affiliated relationship with the wealth business or the retirement business, that is extremely helpful.”

Joe DeNoyior, president of retirement and private wealth at Hub Retirement and Wealth Management, said the market is more into the “top of the third” inning, continuing the baseball analogy. He noted that, as a large aggregator with a history of acquisitions, Hub used to bring on only pure retirement or pure advisory shops. More recently, it is bringing on businesses that are already serving both retirement plan and wealth clients when they join, which leads to quicker execution.

Meanwhile, DeNoyior said, the competitive pressure from the market is leading to more convergence, and “innings” are set to speed up before the “game” settles down.

“The pure wealth shops are doing the same thing [of convergence with retirement], just in reverse,” he said. “You also look at our recordkeeping partners that are focused on it and all the other financial institutions that are focused on it [such as banks]. … I think it’s the best model to serve and then get in front of all those people from a retail perspective.”

Craig Reid, president and national practice leader of retirement and wealth at Marsh McLennan Agency, a subsidiary of Marsh, agreed there is a long way to go, saying the industry was in the “top of the first, top of the second, maybe.”

Reid noted that “there are more [RIA] firms that are being created than are going away through acquisition. So that would suggest the industry is going to continue to expand. … There’s going to be continuous opportunity.”

Margin Play

Madore noted that revenue gains from working with participants—whether by providing a financial plan for a flat fee or providing advice for an annual fee—will often provide greater margins than just purely working with plan sponsors.

He said to the panel: “Here’s my statement, agree or disagree: Retirement-plan-only businesses are not going to be able to survive, long-term, without embracing the other half of their business.”

Bond, of World Insurance, agreed, saying, “embracing is the operative word” when it comes to providing wealth services to participants. But, he cautioned, that does not necessarily mean an advisory has to do that in-house; it could be done through a third-party solution or a partnership with other firms.

Whatever a firm does, Bond said it should make it is not “applying a service model or offering for a high-net-worth or high-net-worth client to a massive affluent or an emerging market or emerging client. You need to make sure that the service offering is appropriate for the client segments that you’re serving.”

Reid, of Marsh McLennan, took the view that a pure retirement plan business or pure wealth advisory can survive without embracing the other side, but “survive” would be the key word.

“Short-term, absolutely,” he said. “Mid-term, probably five to 10 years. Eventually I think there’s going to be a need to embrace the other side.”

DeNoyior said he believes the various advisory models—with an aggregator, independent or at a wirehouse—can work if done right, but success will depend on strategy and goals.

“I think those models all work, depending on what you’re trying to build,” he said. “I would just argue: Is it the wisest thing to do, [to] not embrace the other side?”

DeNoyior noted that working with high-net-worth clients is a “super-competitive” market, with clients being contacted frequently. Having the scale to serve the mass market, or “emerging” wealth clients, has more room for growth.

Ultimate Goal

Madore asked the panelists what the “ultimate goal” of bridging retirement savings and wealth management is, asking, “Is it purely altruistic? Is it purely financial? Or somewhere in between?”

“I think it has to be both,” said Hub’s DeNoyior. “In other words, we all talk about helping people accumulate wealth or accumulate assets in order to replace their paycheck when they get to retirement. Then, in the past, we kind of sent them on their way. … I just don’t think that makes sense. Why would we want to send them out the door when they probably have their most intimidating decision or series of decisions to make?”

That is the altruistic side, DeNoyior said, but he noted that there still “has to be a business case for it, right? You can’t go broke doing it.”

Bond, of World Insurance, agreed, noting that plan advisories often spend significant time building relationships with people when they are in the plan.

“It seems unfortunate that we’d have to walk away at the time of their greatest need,” he said, adding that even when people are in the plan, “they can still have wealth needs. They still have events that happen in their lives where getting more holistic advice would be helpful. And to the extent you can create that bridge, that’s certainly attractive.”

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